Ukraine War thread.

  • For the sake of clarity, I'm not trying to argue a course of action to counter you. I'm simply pointing out some of the reasons that it's not politically viable now. It may be the framework that results in negotiations in the future when both parties actually want to negotiate. Right now the "negotiate" narrative is mostly just a pro Russian tactic to undermine support for UA. Not saying you are that guy, just saying the argument is coming from one group only and they are doing it for reasons not related to reducing deaths or world peace.


    There really are a lot of other reasons why your suggestion isn't great for the US at this time to include emboldening China which was something you were concerned about.

  • Russia has held Crimea for almost 9 years now. According to international law Ukraine has 50 years or so to make claims to get it back. And they should get it back because Ukraine was told by Russia and others that it's borders would be respected. I think we can all see those borders haven't been respected by Russia.


    In 2014 Ukraine's military was in no position to fight for territory it had lost so they started a training program and today we see the results of that training.


    I'm never in favor of giving a bully what they want or letting them keep their ill gotten gains.

  • Quote
    1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-31 JAN 23. The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the VSRF to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt ZSU advances in Luhansk, and expand territorial control in Zaporizhzhia. #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #UkraineFrontLines pic.twitter.com/QtWyRUv2Rj
    Jomini of the West (@JominiW) February 1, 2023

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    2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. pic.twitter.com/aHKZAX1H8l

    Jomini of the West (@JominiW) February 1, 2023

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    3/ Luhansk OD. This OD remains an important disruption zone for Russian & Ukrainian forces. For the ZSU, the Luhansk OD still presents the best opportunity for victory in the Donbas. Expect continued Ukrainian efforts to liberate Svatove. #Luhansk pic.twitter.com/POpjyccrEm

    Jomini of the West (@JominiW) February 1, 2023

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    4/ Donetsk OD. The reintroduction of VDV forces into offensive operations in the Bakhmut area has allowed the SVRF in the Donetsk OD to finally make the marginal tactical progress it should have exploited after the breakthrough at Popasna in early May 2022. #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/jLk26xxq1J

    Jomini of the West (@JominiW) February 1, 2023

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    Quote
    5/ Bakhmut AO. Bakhmut remains the most critical Objective Point of Maneuver in the Ukrainian TVD. Seizure of this point opens the possibility for the OGORFV to pivot on multiple axes in central Donetsk, most important of which is an advance NW on the M-03 Highway. #Bakhmut pic.twitter.com/UnLxi8O0Dj
    Jomini of the West (@JominiW) February 1, 2023

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    6/ Zaporizhzhia OD. This OD remains the most vulnerable for the SVRF. The SVRF will continue its efforts to capture Orkhiv & Vuhledar at whatever cost is required. Expect an increased reliance on VMF Naval Infantry, Wagner PMC, and the VDV to achieve objectives. #Vuhledar pic.twitter.com/iWcfDG44lb

    Jomini of the West (@JominiW) February 1, 2023

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    7/ Kherson OD. Russian forces will continue an active defense in along the Dnipro River with a focus on retaking Velykyi Potemkin Island while deploying reinforcements into fortified defensive positions along the M-17 and P-47 Highways. #Kherson pic.twitter.com/9FMn2Ppmpq

    Jomini of the West (@JominiW) February 1, 2023

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    Quote
    9/ Ukraine SVKO. Russian aerospace forces will priorities targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure and troop concentrations over the suppression of Ukrainian air defenses. Ukrainian HIMARS & UCAVs will continue targeting Russian supply & command nodes. #airdefensefofukraine pic.twitter.com/Rt4GOITtMZ
    Jomini of the West (@JominiW) February 1, 2023

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  • If we’re moving on from the Stinger why have they restarted production?


    If this war has shown anything, it’s showing how fast you can deplete smart weapons, ammo and hardware.


    This is really a very small conflict. An all out war against a peer adversary would strain US logistics to the actual breaking point IMO.


    Our extremely long supply lines would cripple us.

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  • They weren't all fired up about getting it back because they're not able to. What were they going to do? If they tried to do anything it would be war and that's what they're going through right now.


    Why does it matter how long they've held it for? They fucking just stole it.

  • What changed?

    Are you kidding me? They're in an all-out fight for their lives and their country right now. That's what changed. They're forced to fight now. So now that they are forced to go all out why not get their territory back?

    Before they wouldn't have won a pissed off Russia because this is exactly what would have happened to them. They're being raped right now.

  • My thesis is West Taiwan are still going to be assholes to East Taiwan but not step far enough over the line to create a strong international backlash. This would be different than invading or other more aggressive means which was of concern. This thesis isn't a long term one, more that shit is barely functioning now and they are laying off a bit to build strength in the short to mid term.

  • So they didnt have a reason to fight for crimea ?

    They had plenty of reason. They just didn't have the ability. They're not suicidal. Just think about what your line of thought is on this.

    It's like saying that you're in a bad neighborhood and a gang just stole your car. Are you going to go fight them for your car and end up getting your ass kicked or killed? No.

    But if that fucking gang is attacking you anyway you're going to fight back with all you've got.

    Of course they had a reason to fight for a criminal yet what do you think that they just thought it was cool that Russia took it?

  • Before this war started, everybody thought that Ukraine would be rolled by Russia within a few days. Or maybe a couple weeks.


    You actually think that Ukraine would provoke Russia and do a full invasion by trying to take back Crimea?


    So now that they're All in, why the hell wouldn't they take their territory back? What do they have to lose?


  • What do they have to lose?


    If Putin can't stomach the loss of Crimea as well as a lost war in Main Ukraine, they may lose thousands of citizens and even more territory. If Russia goes TacNuke, Ukraine will lose a lot.


    It's a question of how far to push Putin without triggering more than they can handle.