Ukraine War thread.


  • What do they have to lose?


    If Putin can't stomach the loss of Crimea as well as a lost war in Main Ukraine, they may lose thousands of citizens and even more territory. If Russia goes TacNuke, Ukraine will lose a lot.


    It's a question of how far to push Putin without triggering more than they can handle.

    Russia is already trying to roll the whole country, and they're not going to just stop. They are trying to wipe Ukraine out and they just can't do it. What do you think their goal is?


    So from Ukraine's perspective, why concede anything?


    Or do you think Russia will be happy with JUST keeping Crimea and walking away from this? I doubt it.

  • It's a question of how far to push Putin without triggering more than they can handle.

    The other side of that coin is how much does Putin have to lose if he goes NBC. It's not a one way question. You have to look at the players, what motivates them and how they tend to behave. Putin isn't being pushed to nuclear war, he is being pushed out of UA. If he goes back to his borders and blames NATO like he has been, he has more to work with than the potential repercussions of crossing that very dangerous line.


    As of now, he thinks he can politically outlast the wests support. The Ukes are gambling he is wrong. When reality becomes apparent is when we will find out which way this goes.

  • Russia is already trying to roll the whole country, and they're not going to just stop. They are trying to wipe Ukraine out and they just can't do it. What do you think their goal is?


    So from Ukraine's perspective, why concede anything?


    Or do you think Russia will be happy with JUST keeping Crimea and walking away from this? I doubt it.

    They would with the threat of nato involvement. You think the UE is kicking their ass? What do you think f22s f35s reapers and everything else nato has to throw at them will do?

  • Or do you think Russia will be happy with JUST keeping Crimea and walking away from this? I doubt it.

    At the moment I think Putin/Russia would be extremely happy to keep Crimea and just formally incorporate Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics. Ukraine formally relinquishing claims over those two. I think Putin would sign that deal.


    I doubt he's going to get such an offer. If he got that though, I think he'd quit. Even he's not stupid enough to think he can roll all of Ukraine without nukes.

  • They would with the threat of nato involvement. You think the UE is kicking their ass? What do you think f22s f35s reapers and everything else nato has to throw at them will do?

    I don't think UA is kicking their asses. I do think UA has done very well all things considered. Next year is going to be ugly until something folds.


    I was told by someone who would know that Putin was essentially told that there was no path with NBC that would end well. Basically if he used an actual NBC attack NATO would get involved. That kind of threat, if taken seriously has merit. Basically don't try because if you do, we guarantee that you will not prevail.


    Even with our mostly second/third tier stuff, UA is gaining advantage. He knows it's nothing compared to what will happen if he escalates which is why they keep playing the cards to enable dissent in the US and Europe but no one takes the current threats seriously.

  • Putin isn't being pushed to nuclear war, he is being pushed out of UA.

    IF he gets pushed out of UA, he might go home and lick his wounds and cry about NATO playing the role of the USSR and China as we fucked up in VietNam.


    If Ukraine gets the big head and thinks they can push him out of Luhansk, Donetsk and also regain Crimea I think that changes everything. Uke troops rolling into Crimea could very well set the stage for TacNukes. I'm pretty sure the Ukes have been advised by NATO not to invade Crimea. Just a guess but I think that's a good bet.

  • If Ukraine gets the big head and thinks they can push him out of Luhansk, Donetsk and also regain Crimea I think that changes everything. Uke troops rolling into Crimea could very well set the stage for TacNukes.

    Could but I'm not sure where you have reason for conviction in that belief. The whole "what, if anything, would compel Putin to risk escalating to nukes" is currently speculation. There really isn't any actual "red line" that has been drawn, Instead the Russians repeatedly say any additional aid is a major escalation, repeat the nuke threats, then once it happens they minimize the potential threat saying it won't matter and the new stuff is much inferior. There is a consistent pattern each time, dozens of times, much like the "peace talks" propaganda, it is all meant to give talking points for their nightly shows and the portion of conservatives who have been cucked into the anything that is bad for evil Globohomo / the US is good crowd.


    So, we really don't know when/ if we will ever get to the point where Putin will yolo and take a massive gamble hoping the promised overwhelming consequences don't happen and he can use nuclear blackmail to negotiate a stronger "peace "deal.

  • UA doing more cleaning house.


    Zelensky today.


    Today is a fruitful day for our state - fruitful in confronting those who even now tried to weaken Ukraine. We will not allow anyone to weaken our state.

    Today, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Bureau of Economic Security and the Prosecutor's Office conducted dozens of searches and other actions in various regions within the framework of open criminal proceedings.

    And about different people.

    The movement towards justice is felt. And justice will be ensured.

    Cleanliness of processes in the structures of the Ministry of Defense and the Defense Forces in general is especially important.

    Any domestic supply, any procurement, everything must be absolutely as clean and honest as the external supply for our defense.

    Whoever interferes with this will not remain in the relevant structures.

    Volodymyr Zelenskyi


    https://t.me/operativnoZSU/75198

    SUMMARY-

    Today in Ukraine is a new public holiday, yet unofficial - we propose to call it "The Day of Searches and Suspicions"
    Law enforcement officers carried out several raids at once, aimed at "working off persons who, by their actions, harm the security of the state."

    Searchs took place in the house of the ex-head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Avakov. They are related to the case of a helicopter crash in Brovary on January 18 and concerned documentation on the purchase of French Airbus helicopters during Avakov's tenure as minister.

    -Also, the SBU raided the house of a capital developer and a people's deputy from the banned OHL Stolar. It is assumed that construction companies controlled by him were involved in laundering the funds of Putin's godfather Medvedchuk.

    -Searches also took place in the house of businessman Kolomoisky. The investigation concerns the companies Ukrtatnafta and Ukrnafta, of which he was a shareholder.

    -Law enforcement officers and the Ministry of Defense did not ignore. The Office of the Attorney General reported on the suspicion of a number of former and current top officials of the defense department in the fraud of millions of dollars.

    -And Alexander Liev, who was exposed in corruption scandals and is responsible for arms contracts in the Ministry of Defense, did not wait for the visit of the security forces - he wrote a letter of resignation.

    -The employees of the State Bureau of Investigation also worked hard. They conducted searches at the acting office. the head of the Kyiv tax inspectorate, Oksana Datiy, found a car, an elite watch, and a "stash" in foreign currency. Datii has three apartments in Kyiv worth about $1 million and a house in the suburbs of the capital. And also another "stash" of half a million hryvnia. All this was not in her declarations. Also, the official found a "wish list", including a sable fur coat, a Breguet watch and $ 1 million.

    -The SBU detained an employee of the Department of Agrarian Policy, Food and Land Relations of the Odessa District Police Department on a bribe.

    -Suspicions were reported to the former head of the Ministry of Energy Nasalik.

    -The former director of Motor Sich, Boguslayev, was also informed about a new suspicion.

    -In addition, the Cabinet of Ministers fired the leadership of the Ukrainian customs, as well as a number of top officials from other departments - the State Forest Agency and the State Consumer Service.


    https://t.me/uniannet/88290

    Video after which it will be difficult for many to fall asleep.

    One of the few reasons for today's searches and suspicions.

    The video shows a search of one of the officials.

    Zelensky does not forgive this. Hold on.

    Members, you are next.


    https://t.me/operativnoZSU/75218

  • There are also vids of Russians in Uke uniforms getting killed trying to walk into Uke positions to kill them.


    Institute for the Study of War


    A Ukrainian serviceman operating in Bakhmut provided granular insight into Russian tactics in the Bakhmut area. The Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force posted an interview on February 1 with a Ukrainian soldier who stated that the situation in Bakhmut has recently “radically changed” since Russia has committed competent Wagner and Main Directorate of the Russian General Staff (GRU) operatives to the frontline.[24] Wagner and the GRU may be committing more elite special operations and reconnaissance elements to augment human wave attacks in the Bakhmut area. The serviceman also noted that Russian forces are conducting fairly successful infiltration techniques in Bakhmut by sending unarmed, unequipped “camels” (military personnel) to deliver ammunition and weapons to frontline positions. and that these “camels” often are able to approach Ukrainian positions without detection.[25] The serviceman stated that Russian forces identify and destroy buildings that Ukrainian forces operate out of.[26] These techniques, which are likely helping reinvigorate the stalled Russian advances in and around Bakhmut, are not likely scalable to support larger offensive operations. It is also unclear how effective they would be in terrain lacking the kind of cover they appear to be using immediately around and in Bakhmut.

  • There is always at least a dozen of these posted per day. For some reason I don't tire of them.


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  • I had some PLTR before the invasion but my other defense stocks are doing good too. GlobalMacro is about understanding how events drive markets and stocks.


    Ukraine is using Palantir's software for 'targeting,' CEO says
    Data analytics company Palantir is "responsible for most of the targeting in Ukraine," Chief Executive Alex Karp said Wednesday, elaborating on the U.S.…
    www.reuters.com

    FAD60972-CD98-40E8-BDE5-8BDC4F5D4761-2694498.jpg

  • This is really good if you have the time to read it.



    1/ The Wagner Group's 'human wave' attacks, which have left the area around Bakhmut and Soledar strewn with the bodies of dead Wagner fighters, have been described in detail by a Russian source. It explains the brutal calculations behind Wagner's seemingly suicidal tactics. ?? pic.twitter.com/pz74Eej0Tq

    — ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) February 2, 2023


    Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
    @ChrisO_wiki: 1/ The Wagner Group's 'human wave' attacks, which have left the area around Bakhmut and Soledar strewn with the bodies of dead Wagner fighters,…
    threadreaderapp.com


    2/ The 'Russian Criminal' website, which is linked to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, reports what a source – likely within Wagner – has told it about the mercenary group's approach to using recruited convicts to attack Soledar, sustaining huge casualties along the way.

    3/ "The most experienced and well-prepared group of stormtroopers comes first, with excellent equipment. It's comprised of eight men, each with a 'Bumblebee' [possibly meaning an RPO-A Shmel thermobaric rocket launcher, effective against fortified positions].

    4/ "Whatever happens, the group must reach the firing line. "Whatever happens" is not a turn of phrase, but a task, the failure to complete which will end in execution [by Wagner], regardless of any [mitigating] factors.

    5/ "Once fire contact has been made [with the enemy], the group digs into positions. Digging in is taught as meticulously as combat operations, so by military standards, digging in is almost instantaneous and very effective.

    6/ "The area the group has reached is marked (a rag on a tree or something similar). Even if the group is demolished to zero, the next one already realises where the previous one has reached. The main task is to make contact, dig in and transfer positional data to the artillery.

    7/ "Artillery can fire from an hour to several hours. And here is the first cause of conflict with the [Russian] army: if there are not enough shells, instead of a successful attack you get hopeless meat from the stormtroopers.

    8/ "The first group is followed by the second, also eight men, but with much lighter equipment. Their task is to jump into the positions as soon as the artillery shells finish their work.

    9/ "Sometimes there is an order not to wait for the shelling to end – the 'Musicians' are so disciplined that they will go anyway, because they stand a fighting chance of surviving.

    10/ "Nowadays there are not enough shells and because of that the first groups hardly survive – the main blow is coming at them and even training does not solve all the problems there.

    11/ "Even before, losses in the first group were inevitable, but now the survivability of groups as a whole has fallen to critical values. And to replace them with just anyone increases costs even more, and the influx of people has now collapsed.

    12/ "Groups of 8 people go in waves - usually 4 waves are prepared for the attack. But there have been cases in Soledar where it took 14 waves to take one area. Of course there were survivors, but the casualties were a hundred or more. That's for one section.

    13/ "Groups have drone operators to lead the whole group into position to clear the area. At the same time, the lightly wounded do not slouch and do not lie down – for that, they could shoot you in the legs and leave behind.

    14/ "This tactic is the only possible way to achieve results and advance in such conditions. The line of defense in Soledar has been cleverly constructed for years, the army command has neither the possibility nor the desire to advance there.

    15/ "That's basically why the task was handed to Wagner. From the outside, it may look unreasonable to take such a high casualty rate deliberately, but try to look at it in a different way: even 4 waves of 8 men – that is 32 men killed at the worst.

    16/ "Throw in even a regiment – they will lose much more and even they will fail to cope with the task. In percentage terms they will lose less, but in absolute numbers, more. Therefore losses of over 50% for an attack are not bad, if there is a result.

    17/ "There is much less manpower for assault groups now, shells are also in short supply. And if the artillery is suppressed, then no one will call the stormtroopers back anyway, they just mop up without cover.

    18/ "If there are more groups in reserve, you can send in 5, and 6, and 7 waves, just to finish the result. This is not an army, here it is better to have more initiative than to underdo it.

    19/ "The 'Musicians' have their own training – with a crazy intensity, if you are without experience – but they teach a very narrow range of tasks.

    20/ "And the newcomers from the penal colonies are very well disciplined: first they are shown video executions, then very soon they encounter their first real examples, and then they get used to such discipline completely.

    21/ "Another plus from this [in contrast to the Russian army] is that it is not the practice in Wagner to reassign those [qualified as] artillery gunners to the stormtroopers, unless as punishment. Good gunners are also worth their weight in gold.

    22/ "The army will not be able to replace Wagner in hot areas, this is not even considered. In modern warfare, the number of soldiers is not an indicator at all. But, again, the question remains open – what to do about the shortage of shells (120 and 80 mm)?

    23/ "There is a concept of "efficiency relative to the situation", and so this efficiency can be high, but if the situation is deadlocked, then the main issue is still not resolved.

    24/ "Exchanging people for territory is beneficial when the territory is small and people in reserve are plentiful. If, on the other hand, you have to chop for every metre and people have become scarce, problems begin to arise.

    25/ "As a result, losses are growing and progress slows down. The recruitment of convicts at first gave a full-flowing river of people, now they are gone. At the beginning of the war there was talk of Syrian mercenaries, some even came. But they are not fit for this war.

    26/ "Among the 'Musicians' they say aloud that "we're about to put the squeeze on and take everything here." But among themselves, everyone expects that we will be removed from the assault on a number of directions.

    27/ "And even if a large mobilisation begins right tomorrow, it will not be possible to immediately recruit refuseniks in the required numbers, but they still need to be run in, brought to the desired condition, …

    28/ "because otherwise it will not even be possible to spend them effectively. It takes time, it takes a lot of shells. And we have neither one nor the other."

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  • This is a pretty good thread.


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