Ukraine War thread.

  • OK fine.. back to the salt mines I go for you marginally grateful fucks..>


    Just watched this oil vid 20 mins long but lots of charts and other fun.


    Feb 5 ban and price cap starts today. Ban on refined oil products like gasoline from russia. The volume is not as big but the profit margin for russia is higher. Also a price cap for the purchase of these products will drive down the price worldwide as europeans refuse to pay more than the price cap. This in addition to the ban and price cap on crude oil that was already in effect. This is going to further damage the russian economy. Secondary sanctions will eventually be put into place which will damage russias ability to find ways around the sanctions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1h0PVJ9lo58

  • Germany may transfer up to 160 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine, - Handelsblatt

    Manufacturer Flensburger Fahrzeugbau (FFG) has 99 Leopard 1 tanks, and Rheinmetall has 88 more main battle tanks of this model. And most of them they can repair and transfer to Ukraine.

    — MAKS 22\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) February 4, 2023

  • Solid Perun episode as well


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  • This place isn't so bad. Not a single geezer fantasizing about domestic terrorism. At least not yet.

    We are cool as long as we don't go down the shitposting path. Let's leave all out of this one so people can follow along and form their own opinions.


    I express mine and welcome other opinions and posts. Just add value and it's all good.

  • Prigozhin-

    Request from the editors of the NewsInfo publication and response:

    Good afternoon, Evgeny Viktorovich. Information appeared in the media that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are retreating from the northern quarters of Artemovsk. Can you confirm this?



    We publish a comment by Evgeny Viktorovich:

    “I am clarifying the situation. The APU is not retreating anywhere. APU fight to the last. In the northern quarters of Artemovsk, there are fierce battles for every street, every house, every stairwell. Of course, it’s nice that the media want the Armed Forces to retreat, but this does not happen either in the northern quarters, or in the south, or in the east.”


    https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/2592

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    Bakhmut

    The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Blahodatne, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka and Bakhmut. According to UA defense analyst "CDS" The 241st Territorial Defense Brigade was moved to Blahodatne and counter attacked with success. pic.twitter.com/1zXJf1nswf

    Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 5, 2023


    FoN_Tr6aQAEwLBV?format=jpg&name=large


    Quote
    Units of 93rd Mechanized Brigade was moved to the area between Bakhmut and Siversk to stop the RU advance. Some positional battles have been going on around Mykolaivka. RuAF are trying to advance in the Vasyukivka and Rozdolivka direction without success.
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 5, 2023



    Quote
    RuAF are making some progress in the NE residential areas of Bakhmut. Red dots are geolocated RU positions. Fighting is intense. pic.twitter.com/Qs8OIs1rGt
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 5, 2023


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    Bakhmut S

    The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Ivanivske and Klishchiivka. Russian pizda continues to attack in the forest in the canal attempting to reach the T-0504 intersection to Chasiv Yar. pic.twitter.com/FygR1shCM6
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 5, 2023


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    Quote
    Since GSUA are still reporting attacks in the area of Klishchiivka I _assume_ AFU still controls the fortified heights north of the town. I have not seen any signs of progress by RuAF south of Bakhmut the last few days.
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 5, 2023


    Quote
    Vuhledar

    No major change now for a week. One UA telegram claims there are favorable conditions for a UA counter attack in the direction of Novodonets'ke and Novomaiors'ke. I don't think that is true. I think it's Psyops. pic.twitter.com/VDUvYQMDqK
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 5, 2023


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    Quote
    The favorable conditions supposedly raised when some of the Naval infantry units withdrew due to heavy losses. We do need to keep in mind RuAF have accumulated up to 20000 troops in the area between Vuhledar and Mariupol.
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 5, 2023
    Quote
    Ru telegram channels are also talking about an AFU counter attack, they claim AFU have sent significant reinforcements to the area. This is however not strange considering the 20k Ru troops. I suspect the AFU potential reinforcements are intended for defense/relief.
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 5, 2023


    Quote
    I suspect all this talk about UA offensive is just a way for the Russians to explain losses without having done any progress. It's just how things work in Russia, you just lie to cover up other lies.
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 5, 2023


    Quote
    Luhansk Airport January

    This is one of the targets which will become in range once Ukraine receive longer range fires like GLSDB. I counted almost 20 helicopters at this location alone. pic.twitter.com/EO4ofAFjCH
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 5, 2023


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    Quote
    There will be little good news from the eastern frontline in the coming days.
    — WarMonitor\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@WarMonitor3) February 5, 2023
    Quote
    These next months of the war as I have mentioned before will be the toughest.

    Russian forces will throw everything they can into new offensives to achieve some strategic objectives.

    However remember Russia are not the only ones that can launch offensives.
    — WarMonitor\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@WarMonitor3) February 5, 2023
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    As a side note, don't punch Russian camels


    In #Russia, an aggressive owner punched a camel in the nose, probably wanting to show who is the master.#Russians don't understand that violence is wrong. pic.twitter.com/igG39yBbSz

    TOGA (@Jano14Toga) February 4, 2023


    giphy.gif


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  • China Aids Russia's War in Ukraine, Trade Data Shows

    February 4, 2023
    China is providing technology that Moscow’s military needs to prosecute the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine despite an international cordon of sanctions and export controls, according to a Wall Street Journal review of Russian customs data.

    The customs records show Chinese state-owned defense companies shipping navigation equipment, jamming technology, and fighter-jet parts to sanctioned Russian government-owned defense companies.

    Those are but a handful of tens of thousands of shipments of dual-use goods—products that have both commercial and military applications—that Russia imported following its invasion last year, according to the customs records provided to the Journal by C4ADS, a Washington-based nonprofit that specializes in identifying national-security threats. Most of the dual-use shipments were from China, the records show.

    China’s backing for Russia while it wages war on Ukraine was supposed to be on the agenda for discussion during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s travels to Beijing this weekend. That trip was indefinitely postponed Friday after the Pentagon said that it had tracked a Chinese reconnaissance balloon over the continental U.S. earlier in the week.

    Russia’s foreign, defense and economic ministries didn’t respond to requests for comment. “Russia has enough technological potential to ensure its security and conduct the special military operation. This potential is constantly being improved,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

    While Russia has the capability to produce much of its basic military needs domestically, it relies heavily on imports for dual-use technology, such as semiconductors, that is essential for modern warfare.

    Western officials said their economic pressure campaign launched last February would cripple Moscow’s war machine by targeting those exports to Russia, including computer chips, infrared cameras and radar equipment.

    But customs and corporate records show Russia is still able to import that technology through countries that haven’t joined the U.S.-led efforts to cut off Moscow from global markets. Many of the export-controlled products are still flowing through nations such as Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, whose governments are accused by Western officials of flouting the sanctions and controls. Turkish officials have said the sanctions are ineffective and that Ankara is playing an important role as an interlocutor with Russia. Under pressure from the U.S., Turkey has moved to halt some financial and business ties.

    The U.A.E. embassy in Washington, D.C. didn’t comment.

    The records reviewed by the Journal, however, show Chinese companies—both state-owned and private—as the dominant exporters of dual-use goods that U.S. officials say are of particular concern.

    The Journal analyzed more than 84,000 shipments recorded by Russia’s customs office in the period after the West launched the economic pressure campaign that focused on commodities the Biden administration red-flagged as critical to the Russian military. The official Russian customs records, which C4ADS said might not include all records, detail each shipment into the country, providing dates, shippers, recipients, purchasers, addresses and product descriptions.

    The Journal also identified from the records more than a dozen Russian and Chinese companies targeted by the U.S. under the Russia pressure campaign, as well as all other sanctions programs.

    Industry and government officials said the data offers substantial evidence of how Russia is able to sidestep the centerpiece of the West’s response to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

    “Despite international scrutiny and sanctions protocols, reliable global trade data shows that Chinese state-owned defense companies continue to send military-applicable parts to sanctioned Russian defense companies,” said Naomi Garcia, an analyst at C4ADS. “These Russian companies have been recorded using these same types of parts directly in Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

    To tighten the enforcement of the international pressure campaign, U.S. officials have said they are investigating the export of banned products and business dealings, trying to wrangle compliance through diplomatic outreach around the world, and have said they are preparing sanctions against new targets thought to be facilitating the Kremlin’s war.

    On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury Department added to its sanction rolls nearly two dozen individuals and the companies they are allegedly using to procure weapons and other goods for Russian state defense firms.

    Just before Russia’s full-scale assault on Ukraine last February, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping declared a “no limits” partnership aimed at countering the U.S. Since the invasion, Beijing has attempted to strike a cautious balance, saying it is opposed to the war in Ukraine while keeping its diplomatic, financial and trade ties open to Russia.

    “The allegation that China provides ‘aid’ to Russia has no factual basis, but is purely speculative and deliberately hyped up,” Liu Pengyu, China’s spokesman at its Washington embassy told the Journal. Mr. Liu reiterated the long-held view by Beijing that China opposes what it calls unilateral sanctions that have no basis under international law.

    The customs records include examples of exports of parts for the type of weapons used by Russian forces in Ukraine.

    China’s state-owned defense company Poly Technologies on Aug. 31, 2022, shipped navigation equipment to Russia’s state-owned military export firm JSC Rosoboronexport for M-17 military transport helicopters. Earlier that month, Chinese electronics firm Fujian Nanan Baofeng Electronic Co. supplied to Rosoboronexport—through an Uzbek state-owned defense firm—a telescoping antenna for the RB-531BE military vehicle, which is used for communications jamming. On Oct. 24, Chinese state-owned aircraft firm AVIC International Holding Corp. shipped to AO Kret, a subsidiary of sanctioned government-owned defense giant Rostec, $1.2 million worth of parts for Su-35 jet fighters.

    Wang Shaofeng, general manager of Fujian Baofeng Electronics Co., Ltd., said in an emailed response that a third party may be illegally using his firm’s name, and that it doesn’t include “Nanan.” He also said his company doesn’t produce telescoping antennas and doesn’t have a record of shipping to any Uzbek state-owned defense firm. “This report lacks factual basis and is inconsistent with the facts,” Mr. Wang said.

    U.S. Federal Communications Commission documents filed by Fujian Nanan Baofeng Electronic Co. for U.S. sales of two-way radios records matching contact details and is signed by a “Wang Shao Feng.”

    The other Chinese and Russian firms didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    In the past, Russian officials have said they would adapt to the Western sanctions campaign by turning to Asia, including China.

    Other foreign-government suppliers found in the customs data include China Taly Aviation Technologies Corp., a procurement unit of China’s Air Force Equipment Department. The Chinese aviation company didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    Among that firm’s shipments were parts sent on Oct. 4 to Russia’s sanctioned state-owned missile-manufacturer Almaz Antey for use on the 96L6E mobile radar unit. Russia uses the radar to detect enemy jet fighter, missiles and drones as part of its S-400 antiaircraft missile system being used in Ukraine, according to arms analysts. The Russian firm didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    Kret and a host of other Russian companies that contract with the government’s intelligence, military and security services also used privately held Chinese firms. Sinno Electronics, sanctioned late last year by the U.S. Treasury Department for allegedly procuring banned goods for Russia’s defense sector, was one of the most prolific exporters of dual-use goods, sending more than 1,300 shipments between April and October worth more than $2 million, according to customs data. Neither Kret nor Sinno Electronics responded to requests for comment.

    The data also shows shipments of Chinese DJI quadcopters to Russia after the sanctions and export controls were imposed. Military analysts say the drones are being used by the Russian forces to locate and surveil Ukrainian forces, then target them with artillery.

    Some of these drones are delivered directly by a Chinese retailer to Russian distributors, according to customs records, but other DJI quadcopters transit through the United Arab Emirates. The emirates’ embassy in Washington, D.C., didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    DJI said the company opposes military use of its drones, suspended its operations in Russia in April and requires global agents to comply. The company added, however, “We cannot stop users or organizations from buying in countries or regions other than Russia and Ukraine, and then transporting or giving them to Russia and Ukraine.”

    Among the supplies critical to Moscow’s war efforts, U.S. officials say, are the computer chips that are used in weapons that target Ukrainian forces and infrastructure, and in electronic circuitry that makes possible satellite geolocating, radio communication, surveillance and navigation systems.

    Exports of such chips and associated components were more than cut in half after the U.S. and its allies first imposed strict export restrictions, according to the customs records. But those levels quickly began to rise, and by October hit nearly $33 million, just shy of the $35 million monthly level Russia averaged since the U.S. started targeting Russia with sanctions in 2014 after Putin’s army occupied Crimea, according to the Journal’s analysis of the Russian custom records and the United Nations’ Comtrade database.

    Unlike previous export-control regimes that banned the direct provision of certain dual use goods, Western authorities in February said they were targeting the entire supply chain. That means transshipments—goods produced in third countries using U.S. dual-use items, such as chips, that are then shipped to Russia—are also targeted.

    Silverado Policy Accelerator, a Washington-based think tank that seeks to bolster U.S. competitiveness, said in a report published this month that Russia is increasingly relying on transshipments of dual-use goods through China, and especially Hong Kong, to meet its military needs.

    “These measures have had a pretty significant impact on Russia’s capabilities,” said Sarah Stewart, chief executive of Silverado, referring to the allied sanctions and export controls, “but they have not yet delivered a death blow.”

  • "Ukraine is set to replace Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov with the chief of its military spy agency, a close ally of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday, in a reshuffle at the forefront of Ukraine's war campaign.



    Reznikov would be transferred to another ministerial job and replaced by Kyrylo Budanov, head of the GUR military intelligence agency".



    https://www.reuters.com/world/…idential-ally-2023-02-05/

  • Thanks RR, appreciate the generous offer to help/etc. I've lent out (ie given away) some of my kit to 3 of the guys that went with Junior, they were with his unit in Afghanistan and have since worked for JR's private security firm, mostly doing PSD work, they were tasked with protecting Bill Gates'(boooo!) daughter for example. Anyhow, a couple of my PVS14s, plate carriers/armor, various gear such as that, I've essentially donated to the cause of helping my guys.


    The Ukrainian Colonel in charge of recruiting, background checks, etc, interviewed me a couple months ago, and gave me a waiver for my age (they have a technical cut off of 39 years of age, but will bypass that rule if you're solid and check out OK when they background you). So I could go. I want to go. Mainly because I want to have my best friend's six. We were born in the same room at the hospital, and our parents met there, and we've been best friends ever since. He's my oldest, and best friend. I was never worried for him or others until this recent fracas. As fucked up as the Russian forces are, the tech out there now is very deadly, to everyone and everything on the battlefield. I've lost 1 friend there already, and another has been badly fucked up, both from Russian artillery strikes. It's been keeping me up at nights, among other things, and although we have used the Signal app for comms while in country here in Canada, I don't trust using that while the receiving phone is in proximity to the Russians. So, I get very sporadic updates on how things are going, and it's not been easy sitting out and getting such little intel/updates on my family, friends, and co workers there.


    My reality is though that I'm just getting walking back, and running at speed with gear/weapons on, isn't going to happen for a bit. I'm also still caring for my father, who isn't ambulatory, and I won't put him in a home because they are all fucked here. So I have mobility issues, and commitment issues at the moment keeping me home. We'll see how long this lasts, I could still possibly go, as my aunt (father's sister) moved to 1 block away from my father, and would be willing to care for him for a couple months at a time. My concern is if I get wasted or wounded, my aunt won't be capable of caring for my pops long term.


    I also feel that while this invasion is BS, and should be repelled, that the Ukrainians aren't angels by any stretch. colluding with the Biden crime family and other political fucks robbing the taxpayers blind through this war. Still, I'd be going to fight with my friends and family, not specifically because I love Ukraine.


    I agree with the others too Rabit, your posts are great, I've read every one, and check several times a day to see new ones. So thank you. Nice to see Escapegoat show up in the thread too, what's up goat.



    It looks like Ukraine is going to have a pretty switched on armored division (or 3 brigades, whatever) soon. Their troops are in various Nato countries training on the new tanks/afvs, and have a unit with 3 to 400 pretty decent tanks (even the Leo 1s with updated fire control/thermals/optics/etc are good to go to take on any Russian tanks), and 400+ armored fighting vehicles, in addition to a ton of supporting mobile artillery guns. This unit IMO could easily go on the offensive, and punch a huge whole through the Russian lines, and get into their rear areas and cause havoc. The last article you just posted Rabit on the PRC's involvement is spooky, as if they get even more heavily involved, and say supply Russia with not just tech/drones/etc, but say more tanks/afvs, and especially say 10 or 20 thousand screaming slant eyed troopers, we could be looking at a very nasty situation. Of course that's all hypothetical, but still a risk worth considering.

  • Couple of thoughts.


    It sounds like your family issues make going a no go for you. it is what it is. Even if you did go, I don't know if trigger time is your best option considering your overall shape. Not shit talking, I'm not in combat shape either. Training and facilitating makes a lot more sense. You can do some of that from home and that sounds like the pragmatic choice for now.


    As far as the Chinese go, I'm pretty sure they are doing things on the sly but don't want to get wrapped up in an elevated conflict given how shitty the Russians have performed and how strongly the world has stood up to them. The Chinese need a global market for their goods and are far less resilient than the Russians with natural resources. Their house of cards economy was getting iffy with the zero covid riots etc and last fall they did a flip demoting the Wolf Warrior mouthpieces and sending strong we are reopening and good world citizens so please come back signals up to now.


    So, my thesis is they will continue fucking with Taiwan but not bad enough for international blowback and take advantage of the Russians to the same extent. I could be wrong and my thesis will change with the evidence but that's where I think they are at now after such a sudden change back to China 4 years ago.

  • Agreed RR, well said, andI feel the same way on all counts.


    Other than the leg, I'm still in decent shape, I've been doing a ton of rehab sets daily, swim 5 days a week, etc. The reality is that falling 6 meters/20 feet on the stupid assault tower/climbing wall because of a partial equipment, and partial brain failure, and busting my leg in 6 places and my ankle in 2, will take me a year to get back anywhere close to where I was, and want/need to be. Plus I now have a permanent barometer in my leg (one large titanium/carbon fiber bar from kneecap to ankle, 3 plates 15 screws, and 4 pins. So you're absolutely correct on my score, vis a vis the family commitments and my mobility issues right now.

  • well.. this is a concise interview.


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  • Agreed RR, well said, andI feel the same way on all counts.


    Other than the leg, I'm still in decent shape, I've been doing a ton of rehab sets daily, swim 5 days a week, etc. The reality is that falling 6 meters/20 feet on the stupid assault tower/climbing wall because of a partial equipment, and partial brain failure, and busting my leg in 6 places and my ankle in 2, will take me a year to get back anywhere close to where I was, and want/need to be. Plus I now have a permanent barometer in my leg (one large titanium/carbon fiber bar from kneecap to ankle, 3 plates 15 screws, and 4 pins. So you're absolutely correct on my score, vis a vis the family commitments and my mobility issues right now.

    I would suggest working with him to get some fundraising going. A number of units/ people are doing it as a way to fund gear and toys like drones. Put out good quality opsec safe updates etc. He is already outed. He may as well do some good with it now.