Ukraine War thread.

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1/3 In addition to the Bradleys, the steamer unloaded 90 Strykers at Bremerhaven;

in general, the entire batch of military equipment that arrived at the port has 440 combat vehicles of various classes.

A loyal man said that the Americans are creating a stockpile of weapons for pic.twitter.com/YXqGrplVqg
Victor vicktop55 (@vicktop55) February 14, 2023

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2/3 Ukraine closer to the front in advance in order to reduce the logistical shoulder.

Then the time between the announcement of the next sale of weapons to Ukraine and the arrival of equipment at the front will be reduced to several days.
Victor vicktop55 (@vicktop55) February 14, 2023

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3/3 They will simply take iron from European warehouses already replenished in advance.



Ukraine put together five new brigades:

Four infantry (23rd, 31st, 32nd, 117th)

and one artillery (Forty-eighth). Coincidence? I don't think so.

https://t.co/GO4zP5pceZ
Victor vicktop55 (@vicktop55) February 14, 2023

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3rd day in a row, most Ukrainians have electricity all 24 hours, for the 1st time since Oct

Reasons

\uD83D\uDD39Recent Russian missile attacks ineffective, Ukraine downed 85% of missiles

\uD83D\uDD39Several TPP were repaired &work

\uD83D\uDD39Stable import of electricity from Slovakia https://t.co/TTUT5bpA9M pic.twitter.com/avd2HN0TZJ

Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) February 14, 2023

Quote from Gina

Things keep getting worse for Russia and better for Ukraine.

You never know for sure. Take everything with a grain of salt and critical thinking. Over time that gives you the most balanced perspective.

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Bakhmut

The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Fedorivka, Paraskoviivka and Bakhmut. Attacks are mainly done by a mix of VDV and PMC Wagner. It seems to me like the RuAF attacks get weaker and weaker. It could be AFU getting stronger and stronger too. pic.twitter.com/qRchQpdwaU
Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 14, 2023

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UA telegram channel report about AFU counter attack south of Bakhmut and Krasna Hora still not being captured.

They also posted an image with the text "Under control"https://t.co/VGC0w86qUU pic.twitter.com/U1KLHkBT7j
Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 14, 2023

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Considering all recent reports, it seems the AFU are pushing back a bit around Bakhmut. Previously we have seen the AFU reset months of RU progress in a few days. Will be interesting to see if something similar will happen now (not months this time since RU have advanced faster)
Def Mon (@DefMon3) February 14, 2023

They could use the non border to infiltrate and do terrorism things but that extremely unlikely.

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Worrying reports coming from greyzone channel. The gist of it being that it appears to be some rift between Ru MOD and Wagner which spawned its own consequences, main one being the Ugledar fiasco as well as MOD shutting down the prisoner pipeline for wagner.
Ghost (@mdfzeh) February 14, 2023

According to some information circulating in narrow circles and which is now increasingly being confirmed, the Russian Defense Ministry, after the scandalous situation around the capture of Soledar by the Wagner Group, decided to take some offensive actions that could improve the reputation of the Ministry's generals.

It was decided to take an "easy walk" to the consonant Soledar - Ugledar. But due to the lack of proper planning (hasty), the lack of cohesion of forces, the poor quality of intelligence about the enemy's forces and assets, as well as the uncompromising approach to the necessary rotation of the heroic 155th Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet after the battles for Pavlovka.

All this was reinforced by the famous "High School of Generals," which, exactly as a year ago, instructed the columns to march from sunset to dawn, showing the point and drawing an arrow to it on the map. The result of this was a failure of offensive action, and it seems even the transition to the gray zone of parts of Nikolski Dacha, but I can not vouch for the latter.

Artillery preparations before the offensive, given the enemy's advantage in precision-guided and spot-check artillery, proved ineffective. It is also a long-known fact that the enemy had an advantage in counter-battery warfare. The engineer troops did not do a proper job of trawling and clearing the columns' passageways. Radio-electronic warfare systems did not work either. The air support and aerial reconnaissance by UAVs was also lacking. For such a high price, the result was negative.

According to a number of opinions in these same narrow circles, by February 24, it was expected that the Wagner assault forces would try to take Bakhmut into operational encirclement, thereby getting another positive (quite deserved) effect in the media space, which would be reinforced by the anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine.

After all, on this very day, every Russian would be summing up the imaginable and unthinkable results, which would not even stretch to the grade of "satisfactory," and here you could serve your dish - hot Ugledar.

On a day like February 24 it would not have been possible to give to celebrate another victory of the "volunteer assault squads", so, unfortunately, traditionally, that is how it turned out. One month's progress on the two front lines can be seen on the map below.

After the failed pre-holiday local blitzkrieg, it was apparently decided to limit the recruitment of volunteers into the ranks of the Wagner Group, in order to complicate its work in Bakhmut and force it to divide the spoils. But I know that Wagner is an experienced hunter, he knows that the honor of the hunter is to protect and defend his prey, he hunts nobly and honors the Creator of all living things.

https://podcast.silverado.org/…hting-in-ukraine-IK5G0T05

"Dmitri Alperovitch talks to David Bramlette, a former U.S. Ranger and Green Beret combat veteran, who has recently returned from fighting with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. David shares his experiences of the war, why he went over to risk his life for a foreign country, his impressions of the Russian and Ukrainian forces, and what happens when Americans get wounded in Ukraine."


TL:DL
- Russians did not want to fight in woods, didnt have skills to fight there, would hold villages and mine the fuck out of surroundings.
-Spetsnaz once knocked on Ukr CP but impersonated previous CO 14:35 timestamp
-Very little night ops from Russians, reduced even more as war went on.
-HIMARS was a noticeable difference, ~50% decrease in mortars felt within 30 days
-Typical grayzone missions were mines, sniper, or call for fire. Occasionally did manpad traps. Can hear KA52s but Russians protect them as high value asset and shoot way in rear.
-PFMs everywhere
-Worked out of Izyum, towards Kreminna
-Fixed wing comes out when lines are flexing (26:35)
-Russians undisciplined, walking without weapons, gear
-Distinct differences in Ukr units that have old soviet era commanders vs newer young company commanders
- No "silver bullet" (weapon donation) for Ukrainians, combined arms training should have been started in 2014 if you wanted it now.
- beginning of war they were handed AT weapons and they took a boat up to Chernobyl exclusion zone on their own to hit armor columns in rear
- Green beret wants Green berets in Ukraine - set up pre deployment camps/train the trainer. Ukraine is huge and there is plenty of permissive space.

- Ukrainians very crafty, hints toward starlink usage. Comms from CP up were good with Starlink, period of time where comms with teams out in grayzone hit or miss due to lack of good radios(encrypted motorolas with only 500m range)

- 49:42 health care process for wounded american

- Ukrainians share same values as us 56:00

List of new Ru Trv units according to Ukraine

In the past few weeks we've seen a dozen+ RU units that were withdrawn from either Kharkiv or Kherson reappear in battles in the east. There's still dozens that we have not seen, plus Ukraine was reporting about additional Russian "Territorial Forces" (TrV) receiving mobilized troops since sept 2022. You got the troops that are done training in Belarus, plus Sat images of showing increased activity in camps(Voronezh) a days ride from the Russian rear line. The reports that Russia has more men in Ukraine than it did at the start of the war... I'm sure I'm missing other indicators.

My interpretation of the above is that Russia has a lot of oomph that is in position and has yet to be committed, and is in theory slightly more trained than the original mobilized and penal battalions. Spring/Summer favors the Ukrainians as they get Brads, so there is the motivation to attack now.

I don't think it will result in any strategic gains for Russia, but it will change the present phase of the war. So yea I do believe we see something happen in the next two weeks.

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Strike by Russian nonupgraded Lancet-3 drone against Ukrainian 155mm M109A3GN SPH pic.twitter.com/B8vraFRLE8
— Yuri Lyamin (@imp_navigator) February 15, 2023

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Dedicated to Private Mavic. The last mission. The private Mavic destroyed the Russian satellite communications station located on the roof of one of the buildings on the left bank of the Dnipro. The battery power was not enough to return. Oleshky, Kherson 46.623857, 32.743012. pic.twitter.com/dM7G1I8ZTL
Paul Jawin (@PaulJawin) February 15, 2023

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Aerial reconnaissance of the 204th TD battalion and AFU artillery help the Russians to warm up. pic.twitter.com/OuSoWEFnf4
Paul Jawin (@PaulJawin) February 15, 2023

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Failed Russian assault. Drone operators of the \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6National Guard use a drone and, dropping ammunition, finish off the Russian infantry near two damaged Russian BMP-1s. Donetsk direction. pic.twitter.com/PMh7Ke6aZu
Paul Jawin (@PaulJawin) February 15, 2023

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Russian version No man left behind/We do not leave our own. Russian screenplay and actors. Director, cameraman, technical effects 113th TD brigade and artillery unit of AFU. The towed gun was also forgotten. pic.twitter.com/PH4vFrjexW
Paul Jawin (@PaulJawin) February 15, 2023

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Looks like HIMARSed \uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA tank convoy pic.twitter.com/8rNwz0DA7E
C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) February 15, 2023