Ukraine War thread.

    Institute for the Study of War


    Key Takeaways

    • Russian forces conducted the largest missile strike across Ukraine of 2023 likely only to advance Russian state propaganda objectives.
    • Russian forces likely advanced northwest of Bakhmut amid a likely increased tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area.
    • The Wagner Group’s offensive operation in eastern Bakhmut appears to have entered a temporary tactical pause and it remains unclear if Wagner fighters will retain their operational preponderance in future Russian offensives in the city.
    • Russian forces may be preparing to resume offensive operations around Vuhledar, although persistent personnel and ammunition issues will likely continue to constrain Russian forces from advancing.
    • Internal dynamics within the Russian military may be driving the potential resumption of costly offensives near Vuhledar that offer little prospect of operational benefit.
    • Russian authorities are likely formalizing structures to create and coopt volunteer-based military formations under state-owned energy companies in order to distribute accountability, reduce burdens on the national budget, and avoid sanctions.
    • The Transnistrian occupation government accused the Ukrainian government of involvement in a claimed terrorist plot, likely as part of the Russian information operations to undermine Ukrainian credibility and destabilize Moldova.
    • Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks throughout the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut but have not completed a turning movement or enveloped or encircled the city.
    • Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City and near Vuhledar.
    • Russian strikes completely disconnected the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast, from all external power sources for 10 hours.
    • Ukrainian officials reported that Russian occupation authorities are preparing for a spring 2023 mobilization wave in occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that may include male teenagers born in 2006.
    • Russian officials and occupation authorities are continuing efforts to integrate occupied territories into the Russian political and bureaucratic systems.

    Here’s a couple of long Youtube educational videos. Worth watching both in their entirety if you have time. I’ve tried to summarize below.

    The first is an overview of where Putin’s political philosophy comes from. It isn’t Dugin, who is represented as a plaigerer. 1) Ivan Ilyin, Russian fascist political philosopher with a wash of (false) Christianity. 2) Lev Gumilev, a marxist antisemite quack with geologic/climatic/astrological arguments for why Russia really extends into Europe and is destined to rule the world. 3) Carl Schmidt, Nazi political philosopher who argued for total, lawless power concentrated in the hands of the leader, for “Spheres of influence” (where have we heard that?) and for exercising naked power to force the west to abandon or make exceptions to its ideals, thus showing the west to be hypocritical and destroying its moral fiber.

    mqdefault.jpgThe Ideology of Putin's Russia

    The Ideology of Putin's Russia
    Use this link to download and use Speakly free for 7 days, and get a 60% discount if you join the annual subscription. https://speakly.app.link/Speakly Curre...
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    The second is a talk by Timothy Snyder, less about the specifics of the war or even genocide and more about the moral implications vis a vis the West. I put these two videos together because a lot of Snyder’s talk implicitly addresses the Nazi methodology of Carl Schmidt being employed by Putin and Russia against the west. That is, the war is a lawless challenge to the ideology, culture, and history of the west to say, effectively “We (Russia) have the power to remake Europe and remake your history however we want. We will show your ideals are false at the point of a gun.” At one point, Snyder is asked how the west benefitted from Ukrainian resistance. He didn’t say “because it gave us precious time to arm the fuck up against China.” He said “because it gave us the time to reflect on what the west stands for, and the chance to act on it. If you watch the top video first you will have a better idea what Snyder is getting at and why, because he doesn’t actually name Schmidt in this video.

    mqdefault.jpgTim about Ukraine for 27 mins Timothy Snyder, Ukraine from Historians' perspective NO MUSIC

    Tim about Ukraine for 27 mins Timothy Snyder, Ukraine from Historians' perspective NO MUSIC
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kutub_al-Sittah#cite_note-tahir-4https://podcasts.ox.ac.uk/http://videolectures.net/https://medieval.bodleian.ox.ac.uk/https:...
    www.youtube.com

    IMO watching these two videos will give you a much better idea of the ideological foundations of this war and why Putin/Russia is doing what they are doing against Ukraine and the world. If anything it paints a more dire picture of the situation than one might think. Anyone who thinks that Russian actions in Ukraine don’t concern us should watch these videos. In fact Putin’s actions are ultimately more directed at the west than Ukraine.



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    Bakhmut... Famous Plane \uD83D\uDE22 pic.twitter.com/eB5p1ZIJLJ
    — MAKS 22\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) March 10, 2023

    Reports in the last 3 hours claim Bakhumt front is under control.





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    The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be in two months,- the official to the office of the President of Ukraine Podolyak.



    “We are not in a hurry, reorganizing over the next two months. We will wear down the Russians in Bakhmut and then concentrate elsewhere.” pic.twitter.com/Co6vwIpZF4
    — \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) March 10, 2023


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    6. In case of incidents (traffic incidents, servicemen under influence of alcohol/drugs, injuries or fatalities among civilians, etc.) identify yourself as a Wagner PMC combatant.



    4/x
    Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) March 10, 2023


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    7. Servicemen are not banned from occupying empty housing in "liberated areas" but only if it is confirmed that the residents are no longer present in the same settlement. The same applies to vehicles. In emergencies, it is allowed to remove residents if it's authorised.



    5/x
    Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) March 10, 2023


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    8. Any statements in relation to Russia's military and political leaders should only be in positive light.



    6/6
    Alex Kokcharov (@AlexKokcharov) March 10, 2023

    Now official Russian government Twitter accounts openly threaten Georgia.


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    Myth Busting With Michael Kofman: Debunking Common Misperceptions About the Ukraine War


    Myth Busting With Michael Kofman: Debunking Common Misperceptions About the Ukraine War | Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado
    Dmitri Alperovitch sits down once again with Michael Kofman, Russian military analyst, who has just returned from visiting the frontline in Bakhmut, to talk…
    podcast.silverado.org

    Suyi控 @partizan_oleg has done yeoman work -- here's a T-72 thread by him:

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    I tried to sort out Russian T-72 stockpiles with limited sources and many assumptions, and here it is: 1/n

    Russian military basically stopped to build new T-72 hulls for its own armed forces since the fall of the Soviet Union. From 2013 some 1100 T-72B3/B3Ms were converted from existing T-72B hulls. So the Russian T-72 stockpile maintained unchanged since 1991. 2/n

    According to Internet sources (!!) that I can not 100% be sure, some 18,000 T-72s were made before the Soviet breakup. 3/n

    According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)'s International Arms Transfer Database (which is, frankly speaking, not 100% accurate), some 7400 T-72s were exported by the USSR from 1970 to 1991. 4/n

    According to V.Feskov (2013) , a total of 5144 T-72s were fielded by the USSR as of late 1980s in the CFE area (excl. Siberia, Central Asian, Turkestan, Transbaikal, and Far East MDs). A couple of divisions were missing in these charts but they won't make a big difference. 5/n

    Post-USSR Central Asian republics (Turkestan+Central Asian MD) obtained some 1800-2000 T-72s. 6/n

    The Transbaikal MD (incl. the 39th Army in Mongolia) was another major user of the T-72: no less than 1400 should had been fielded; the Far Eastern MD, however, was fielded with T-80s. 7/n

    If we add these numbers up, we have the number of 7400+5144+1800+1400=15700. Given that the first batch of T-72s were introduced in 1970, which was 20 yrs before the end of the Soviet Army, it is possible that some 2000 early T-72 Urals had already been retired from service. 8/n

    The Soviet Army ended in 1991 with some 8300 T-72 tanks. Among them, ~1800 were acquired by Central Asian countries, ~800 acquired by Trancaucasus countries, ~1160 acquired by Belarus, ~600 by Ukraine. 9/n

    Russian Federation also exported some 500 T-72s (excluding those newly-built for India) from 1991-2021. That gives the number left as 3440. I think this may be close to the actual number of T-72s that Russian has got before the war. Among them some 1961 were in active service.10/

    What was unexpected by me is that the calculated amount of T-72s (some 1500) in storage is much fewer than what I assumed before. (I thought there could have been 7000!) And many of them are probably not in a good shape. 11/n

    Now that 1000 T-72s are confirmed lost by @oryxspioenkop , which was 1/2 of Russian's pre-war active T-72 fleet and maybe more than 1/3.5 of its total T-72 fleet. I think the actual loss number should be ~40% higher (1400 pieces lost/unserviceable). 12/n

    The more important thing is that it may already have been impossible for the Russians to compensate its T-72 losses from its reserve even with earlier types e.g. the T-72 Ural. 13/end

    Quote from ASTAC

    Now official Russian government Twitter accounts openly threaten Georgia.


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    Quote
    #Bahkmut #Donetsk region field after russian zerg-rush\uD83E\uDD26???\uD83E\uDD26???\uD83E\uDD26??? pic.twitter.com/aG9ocbIgHx
    — Cloooud |\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@GloOouD) March 11, 2023

    Fq9DuH-WAAcRdBo?format=jpg&name=small

    Different Russian group hunted to extinction at night.


    05BED369-9B35-4CC8-9A52-DA76C70D3E3F-2741945.jpg

    Quote
    Ok, I can't post everything yet. Not everything is super clear yet, also. Watch till the end. I hope you understand the importance of thermal vision drones. pic.twitter.com/InlLUktyWr
    — ?\uD83C\uDF49 Constantine \uD83C\uDF49? (@Teoyaomiquu) March 11, 2023

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    Step 1 — Build a false foundation

    On September 7, 2022, the obscure YouTube and Telegram channel Journalisten Freikorps (“Free Corp of Journalists”) published a six-second video of a Stinger MANPAD lying on the ground. The video description claimed the footage was filmed at the German port of Bremen on July 20, 2022, as Ukrainian military personnel were being arrested for transporting multiple “tubular devices.” The post also claimed the Ukrainian troops were aboard the ship Floriana, sailing under a Ukrainian flag, and bound for Turkey.

    In the footage, an authoritative German voice can be heard asking someone to stop filming. Researchers from the Ukrainian fact-checking organization StopFake and the US fact-checking organization Lead Stories found that the audio was copied from an old YouTube video uploaded on January 23, 2022. In addition, while the Floriana is a real vessel, it sails under the Maltese flag rather than the Ukrainian flag. Bremen police confirmed the report was false and that they “did not arrest any Ukrainians who dealt in weapons.”

    The Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) conducted a separate investigation into Journalisten Friekorps’s assets and found the organization was connected to Russia by tracing it to an expired Russian e-commerce domain name. The organization also spread anti-Ukraine petitions in Germany that were recently included in a Facebook takedown covered by the DFRLab and promoted other websites aimed at discouraging support for Ukraine. Further analysis from threat intelligence researcher Kyle Ehmke found a connection between Journalisten Friekorps and other pro-Russia websites in German.

    The Journalisten Freikorps Telegram channel was created on May 18, 2022; it typically reposts short news stories from local German media outlets. The Journalisten Freikorps YouTube channel was created on August 24, 2022 and links to an non-functioning website.

    Step 2 — Use forgeries to support a false debunk

    The next step in the Russian playbook is providing additional “evidence” to cement the narrative. In this case, a September 7, 2022 article by the fringe Ukrainian publication National Bank of News (NBN) claimed it had fact-checked the story using a letter that turned out to be a forgery. The article, which appeared the same day Journalisten Freikorps published the video to its Telegram and YouTube videos, discussed a Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung interview with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. NBN claimed that Scholz “deliberately” delayed weapons shipments to Ukraine because of the Journalisten Freikorps video. The article then stated that Ukrainian troops were not detained in Germany for transporting weapons, “debunking” the claim using the forged letter.

    The letter in question, purportedly written by Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, was addressed to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. It claimed that the Stinger MANPADS identified at the port of Bremen were now in Kharkiv. In the letter, the word “Kharkiv” is written as “Харьків,” which is a combination of the Ukrainian spelling “Харків” and Russian spelling “Харьков.” The letter also used a copy of Reznikov’s digital signature, stolen from another document signed on April 9, 2022; it previously appeared in a September 2022 forged letter documented by the DFRLab.

    Step 3 — Plant bogus evidence in a credible source

    The next day, on September 8, Ukraine’s public radio broadcaster published a story at 12:25pm about the testing of a new emergency notification system. According to archival versions of the piece preserved by the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine, at some point in the next three hours, hackers breached the website and replaced the text with a new story titled, “The General Staff conducts unscheduled inspections of warehouses with weapons.” In addition, there is a third version of the story that appeared before the article was taken offline with the title “Test” and the body text “123.” Ukrainian Radio confirmed the breach to the DFRLab.

    The inserted story was about Serhiy Shaptala, Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, demanding inspections of the 92nd Mechanized Brigade. The article quoted Freikorps and NBN and shared the forged Reznikov letter. The article also included another document, which does not bear any digital signatures. The document sets out an additional “separate assignment” to check on the availability of Stinger systems, resulting from random inspections that purportedly found three missing Stinger MANPADS.

    While the style of the hacked article is somewhat similar to the style of Ukrainian Radio, it lacked one essential component — audio. Ukrainian Radio embeds audio clips in its articles, containing excerpts from its broadcasts. The hacked story did not include any audio recordings.

    Step 4 — Launder the source of information

    The next step in the Russian disinformation playbook is to launder the source of the information by appearing to amplify other coverage. On Telegram, Journalisten Freikorps highlighted the “investigation” of “Ukrainian colleagues” at Ukrainian Radio — e.g., the hacked web page — adding that they “hope for the answers.” The post included a screenshot from a dark web marketplace and claimed that users can order Stinger MANPADS online. Journalisten Freikorps suggested that the dark web shop and the disappearing weapons may be related. The use of the dark web as a scarecrow is a recurring approach that Russian disinformation outlets have relied on since the invasion of Ukraine, as the DFRLab has previously reported. The DFRLab attempted to access the dark web marketplace, but the site was unreachable at the time.

    Later, Journalisten Freikorps published another post that said Ukrainian Telegram groups are offering to pay people to place dark web orders. The claim appears to have originated from a single Telegram account that published two posts in a Telegram group, one in English and one in Ukrainian, offering payment for dark web orders. However, Ukrainian moderators immediately deleted the post and kicked the account out of the group. The account is no longer active on Telegram.

    Journalisten Freikorps also published a screenshot of a private chat allegedly sent to them by a German student who claims to have exposed the dark web marketplace and alerted local police in Dresden. The DFRLab attempted to verify the student’s claim with Dresden police, who told the DFRLab, “the occurence you are refering to ist [sic] know to Polizeidirektion Dresden and is currently under investigation from the Staatsschutz department of Dresden Police.”

    Step 5 — Time the release

    Image metadata suggests that some consideration also went into timing the release of the disinformation campaign materials. A key website in the operation is World and We, a blogging platform where registered users can publish stories. On September 17, it published a story about the Stinger MANPADS and said that Ukraine “has already been repeatedly convicted of outright lies,” so any denials should be ignored. The article also claimed Europe’s security was under threat. The article cited the Journalisten Freikorps’ Telegram channel and included images of the forged letters and the supposed dark web marketplace. Three image file names contain the date “20220909” and times that range from 12:26:28 a.m. to 1:58:54 a.m.. This is a standard naming format many computers use when taking a screenshot or saving a file. The images published on the website do not follow a unified naming system, suggesting images maintain the file name provided by the author. The file name suggests that preparations were underway for this article as early as September 9. However, it was published eight days later. While the reason for this delay is unknown, it is worth noting that during this period the Ukrainian army was conducting a counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast that was making headlines.

    On September 14, the story also appeared on the German website Weltexpress, which accepts payment for coverage. The outlet has previously published pro-Kremlin narratives, including an article that blamed Ukraine for the Bucha massacre. Weltexpress cited the NBN article and the “evidence” provided by Journalisten Friekorps. After Russian media began promoting the narrative), the Weltexpress article was amplified by Olga Petersen, a Russian-born German politician with the Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) party. In her post, Petersen said she would ask the Hamburg senate to investigate. AfD is known to have links with Russia.

    Step 6 –Pro-Kremlin sources pick up the baton

    On September 16, the pro-Russia YouTuber Vladimir Gorbovskiy published the Stinger video on his Telegram channel. He claimed that German authorities had contacted Ukrainian officials to discuss missing weapons and Ukraine responded that it was storing the weapons. He then hypothesized that the weapons would be used against civilian aircrafts in Europe. Another Telegram channel found a Bremen police statement regarding the theft of electronic equipment and falsely interpreted it as being related to the Stinger operation.

    On September 17, World and We’s Telegram channel published the Stinger video and asked, “Germans, have Lufthansa planes fallen yet?” A few hours later, the abovementioned World and We article was published. The story was republished verbatim by the pro-Russia fringe media outlet Naspravdi.info, while a slightly edited version appeared on the pro-Kremlin website Bloknot. Bloknot also published a followup story that claimed people in the West were protesting military aid to Ukraine. This story included one image with “2022–09–08” in its name. The article also included the two documents shared in the hacked Ukrainian Radio story; however, it shared the documents in reverse order. This is noteworthy because the two documents were shared as a single image file. The Bloknot version also removed the digital signature. A comparison of the documents revealed minor differences in the document that does not bear a letterhead, indicating the text was slightly edited.

    The story also circulated in mainstream pro-Kremlin media. The tabloids Moscow Komsomolets and Komsomolet’s Pravda repeated the claim that Ukrainians had been detained in Germany for trading weapons and amplified the narrative that a German student discovered the illegal marketplace. They also cited anonymous “local media” to claim that the weapons were intended for the Kharkiv counteroffensive.

    The next day, the story appeared on Channel One Russia. It then reached Twitter, where it was shared by Dmitry Polyanskiy, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations. The story also made waves on Russian social media platform VK. The posts appeared on both personal pages and groups, including one dedicated to the city of Boston. The VK posts mostly cited the archived Ukrainian Radio article as evidence.

    Step 7 — Prepare some “analysis” and translate it into English

    War On Fakes, a pro-Kremlin disinformation outlet masquerading as a fact-checking organization, also reported on the claim, first in Russian, and a few hours later in English. The article replicates much of the World and We article, cites the NBN article, and includes a screenshot of the Ukrainian Radio article. The article claims that “Western arms were literally flooding from Ukraine to different countries of the world,” and concludes that Ukraine should not be trusted. The article was shared on Facebook by the Russian Embassy of New Zealand.



    https://medium.com/dfrlab/seve…-allegations-a3e80ebedaf5

    Moldova police say they foiled Russia-backed unrest plot
    CHISINAU, Moldova (AP) — Police in Moldova said they foiled a plot by groups of Russia-backed actors who were trained to cause mass unrest during a Sunday…
    apnews.com

    The head of Moldova’s police, Viorel Cernauteanu, said in a news conference that an undercover agent had infiltrated groups of “diversionists,” some Russian citizens, who allegedly were promised $10,000 to organize “mass disorder” during the protest in the capital, Chisinau. Seven people were detained, he said.

    Separately, police said they arrested 54 protesters, including 21 minors, who exhibited “questionable behavior” or were found to be carrying prohibited items, including at least one knife.

    Moldova’s border police also said Sunday that 182 foreign nationals in the last week have been denied entry into Moldova, including a “possible representative” of Russia’s Wagner Group, the private military company that is fighting in Ukraine, Moldova’s war-torn neighbor.

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    NEW: Tonight's #Ukraine update establishes a comprehensive timeline of the rivalry between #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin and the #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), which likely reached a boiling point over #Bakhmut. w/ @criticalthreats https://t.co/UpUF3CUtkG pic.twitter.com/ItWvbZ2osz
    ISW (@TheStudyofWar) March 13, 2023
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    2/ Tonight's report also analyzes the #Russian MoD’s likely intent to expend #Wagner forces in #Bakhmut and explores Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s manipulation of the conflict between #Prigozhin & the MoD to maintain the stability of his regime. https://t.co/UpUF3CUtkG pic.twitter.com/AD8bDJdfAz
    ISW (@TheStudyofWar) March 13, 2023