Ukraine War thread.

  • Taliban getting spicy


    Abdul Hamid Khorasani's message from the Taliban's oppressive commanders to Iran: Do not test our power, you are behind the curtain with the Westerners, we are real Muslims, if the elders of the Islamic Emirates allow us, we will conquer Tehran... pic.twitter.com/hDAKmbpeYf

    Spriter (@Spriter99880) May 27, 2023


    Sistan province is now facing a drought and Iran is accusing the Taliban of building new dams on the river and diverting water.

    The Taliban promise to capture Tehran, the capital of Iran, in a few days if they do not stop their provocations.

    — MAKS 23 \uD83D\uDC40\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) May 28, 2023


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    Heavy Fighting is continuing to take place along the Border with Iran and Afghanistan, with reports from earlier today stating that Taliban Forces utilizing American Towed-Artillery and other Equipment had Captured a Iranian Border Security Post near the City of Zabol in the… pic.twitter.com/c7OTnUoX0m

    OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 28, 2023



    letthemfight-2.gif

  • The Russian Army rethinks defence doctrine » Wavell Room
    The Russian War in Ukraine Continues. Soon Ukraine will begin it's counter-offensive. Will the Russian Defence hold?
    wavellroom.com


    Is the proposed defense doctrine realistic in Ukraine?

    Romanchuk offers sensible concepts for defense operations. However, it remains questionable whether Russian armed forces in Ukraine could execute the ideas.

    First, Russian operations continue to be hobbled by inadequate tactical communications. A remarkable aspect of the war has been an absence of brigade still less divisional operations. After the chaotic charge in the first two weeks of the war and subsequent retreat, even battalion tactical group (BTG)-level operations have been rare. This year, the only example is the fiasco involving 155th Marines in Vuhledar. Instead, the Russian war has degenerated into countless platoon and company level actions – the only level of command confidently controlled with a mix of VHF radios and walkie-talkies. Joint operations – as understood by a Western soldier – are absent.

    Second, there is the question of morale. The chmobiks (mobilised soldiers) have only been tested once, during the Kharkiv counter-offensive in September last year. They fled in disorganisation and confusion. Six months later, with no end in sight to their call-up, a willingness to fight remains uncertain. This matters because the chmobiks are filling ranks of depleted regular army units, barely recognisable from original orders of battle. Elite units such as the airborne forces and Spetsnaz have been especially heavily committed and are currently locked in stalemated fronts at Svatove, Kreminna, Bakhmut, and elsewhere. Some reporting suggests these units are also now filled with chmobiks and can no longer be considered elite. Even if the mobilised soldiers enjoyed better morale, do they have the training and skills to execute the type of agile, mobile operations described by Romanchuk?

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  • This is what I mean about shaping operations. Targeting of support structures for the military etc


    Some of a couple dozen from today


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    Video from Mariupol. OHHHH BOOOY is this video spicey. pic.twitter.com/M9PJwzJntm
    Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) May 28, 2023


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    Report of explosion in Volnovakha pic.twitter.com/dklGVSd493
    Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) May 28, 2023


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    Reports of explosions in Komysh-Zorya pic.twitter.com/95iLykhmvX
    Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) May 28, 2023


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    Reports of explosions in Novopetrivka. pic.twitter.com/g1Q434yohT
    Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) May 28, 2023


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    Air defense active in Beryansk. pic.twitter.com/hJxB9dCsvy
    Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) May 28, 2023


    FxPAr_iWcAAFtf4?format=jpg&name=small


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    Reports of a strike in Yurivka pic.twitter.com/6BPyXuM3JN
    Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) May 28, 2023


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    Report of a fire in Uzruf. pic.twitter.com/ozGIGCTAVZ
    Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) May 28, 2023


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    At least 6 volleys of anti aircraft missiles were fired around mariupol. Including at least 1 volley in each of Staryi Krym (noted above), Mangush, and Nikolske. Unconfirmed reports of strikes on Nikolske pic.twitter.com/forQlMPGJB
    Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) May 28, 2023
  • Totally believable Russia



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    \uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 In Energodar, Ukrainian saboteurs who were preparing terrorist attacks at the ZNPP were detained. They carried maps and plans of the nuclear power plant with marks for delivering strikes that could lead to a nuclear catastrophe.

    https://t.co/NqxsbdI1Jq pic.twitter.com/77s5x6roJ1
    Sinnaig (@Sinnaig) May 28, 2023
  • Some commentary from Rob Lee.

    Russia achieved limited tactical gains at high cost over the winter. Ukraine correctly held back resources and spent time regenerating offensive potential to give itself a better chance of achieving operational-strategic level gains this summer.

    If Ukraine had committed all of its resources to the front over the winter, Russia likely wouldn't have made any gains but Ukraine would have reduced its chances for achieving a breakthrough this summer.

    I think some people assume that both sides commit all of their resources to the front line at all times and that wars are linear, but that isn't how it works. Ukraine has a much better chance of making serious gains this summer than Russia had over the winter.

    I think the focus on Bakhmut has given some people the wrong perception of the war, conflating a tactical-level battle (Bakhmut) with the strategic level. There were several other battles over the winter and none were successes for Russia.

    There are still important long-term questions about ammunition availability and other variables, but I'm more optimistic about Ukraine' chances after Russia's failed winter offensive and recent announcements of more capable weapons' deliveries from NATO members.

    Russia made some slow and costly gains last spring before that offensive culminated. Similar arguments were made then about the war's trajectory favoring Moscow, but the attrition Russia sustained set the conditions for Ukraine's successful offensives in Kherson and Kharkiv.

    Russian equipment issues are growing, and they are increasingly relying on convicts to fight/hold their lines. I'm skeptical that Russia can restore sufficient offensive potential to make serious gains. The question is whether they can defend the territory they currently control.

  • Some silliness


    ✅ The people of Kiev complained about the vibration, which they took for an earthquake.

    On the air of the telethon, Vitali Klitschko was asked if he knew what she was connected with.

    “This weapon is going to the front, new, powerful. There may be a vibration associated with this,” the mayor replied 🧐

    RAGNAROCK PRIVET
    ✅ Киевляне жаловались на вибрацию, которую приняли за землетрясение. В эфире телемарафона Виталия Кличко спросили, знает ли он, с чем она была связана.…
    t.me




    Quote
    "The vibration felt by the people of Kyiv that night is connected with the transportation of very powerful weapons to the front" - Mayor Klitschko on the air of the telethon



    \uD83D\uDE01\uD83D\uDE01\uD83D\uDE01\uD83D\uDE01\uD83D\uDE01\uD83D\uDE01\uD83D\uDE01\uD83D\uDE01\uD83D\uDE01 pic.twitter.com/sV1GFsbFEq
    — MAKS 23 \uD83D\uDC40\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) May 28, 2023



    FxOTElvXsAI7Lxq?format=jpg&name=900x900




    The 38th brigade of marines is already booking a place in the Skadovsky hotel \uD83D\uDCAA

    At the moment, Russians are based there, but soon the Leopards will block the parking lot and the hot season will begin. \uD83D\uDD25\uD83D\uDE02 https://t.co/1BekZ099mH

    Cathy (@cathy39637692) May 28, 2023


  • Bakhmut


    The northern flank - there are minor victories, I will not say that there is anything large-scale, the guys are trying, the situation itself is a little more difficult there, the terrain, in my opinion, is worse, there are successes and I think that this is the most important thing now, of course, the successes are not as we would like, but in small steps we repel the enemy.

    The southern flank - there is an advance in the direction of Klishchevka, in the area of +500-650 m. Yesterday, after successful assaults, we managed to advance closer to the settlement, take new positions and strengthen our positions. Assault operations are also being conducted at this time. We are polishing the settlement, so to speak

    The situation on the outskirts of the city has not yet changed, the enemy is trying to take the lines that remained, so far to no avail, except for a pile of 200/300, there are no successes.


    You can watch how the underdogs start to get nervous, it becomes more and more difficult for them to maintain, especially the adapted biomass from Zaporizhzhia is a confirmation of that, imagine how it will be, if this happens, in a week or two we will bring the city back under our control, it will be a disaster for the population morons 😂 they will cry around the clock, so many months of assaults and finally "VICTORY" but, let's wait, it will be very interesting to watch the katsaps.

    He hugged everyone, lifted them up, twisted them and put them in their place

    Source: Peredovych0k

    Bakhmut. Life | Chat | Write to us


    https://t.me/bakhmut_life/26876

  • Quote
    [Dmitry Medvedev] added, ‘We will make 1,500 tanks alone this year,’ a riposte to the arrival of the first Western tanks in Ukraine.



    This article examines the credibility of this claim and the broader challenge facing the Russian defence industry.https://t.co/cl1O5Yqifa
    — Wavell Room - UK Defence & Security Analysis (@wavellroom) May 28, 2023

    1,500 new and modernised tanks - really? » Wavell Room
    In March 2023 Dmitry Medvedev claimed that Russian tank production would reach 1,500. But is this claim credible? And could Russia do it?
    wavellroom.com

  • The World’s Greatest Soap Opera.

    The ban on mentioning Wagner seems to be real.


    We publish a request from the editors of the VEK publication and the answer:

    A scandal has been flaring up in social networks for several days due to the fact that it is forbidden to show and mention Wagner PMCs in the central media. Indeed, from the calculations of specialists it follows that the mention of PMC "Wagner" has fallen sharply, despite the fact that the popularity of PMC "Wagner" is at its peak after the capture of Artemovsk. There is information that the ban came from the Department of Internal Policy. Can you share your opinion on why this happened?


    We publish a comment by Evgeny Prigozhin:

    “Well, let's systematize the task. How can you systematically influence the fact that no major media outlets mention the word "PMC" Wagner "? First option. The President gave the order. Perhaps, but it seems to me that for this he should be given some initial data. Second. Sergey Vladilenovich Kiriyenko could have done this - give the command. Under Kiriyenko there is Yarin, who often plays his games and can easily do it. Then there is Aleksey Alekseevich Gromov, who oversees, but he has no influence on online publications, this is under Kiriyenko. Well, in fact, anyone could ask further, from Vaino to Dmitry Sergeevich Peskov, which is unlikely, since there is no global threat for them from the fact that Wagner PMCs are mentioned. Therefore, I think that, most likely, this is the internal policy department, which is trying to minimize the society's demand for justice and the society's demand for domestic Russian heroes. Because the heroes, of course, should remain bureaucratic officials who today govern the Russian state, and the only ones who should be thanked are them. Well, if they are not thanked, then they say: "Okay, God bless him, thank the president."




    https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3495

  • Prigozhin sends a five page letter to Shoigu about border security.

    Shoigu does not read it.


    On May 26, another attempt was made to send a letter to the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation S.K. Shoigu with proposals to ensure the security of the border areas, but since the letter was not accepted once again, we publish it on the press service.

    https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3498