What do you think? Have they?
It's hard to say. There are many things getting increasingly bad for Russia but that does not mean they won't keep pushing until there is some plausible "victory". Likewise, UA is continually getting beat up by Russian long range missiles too.
My gut feel is most likely something will crack in Russia and Putin will decide that the risks don't outweigh the rewards at some point in the next year. Like any authoritarian regime, power tends to be brittle and Putin could be taken out or something else which becomes the catalyzing event that brings the war to an end. A lot of people over time have declared UA was going to fall soon for five years now. A lot of people over time have declared that Russia would fall too. Both were wrong and although both UA and Russia have paid a very high price and Russia is long past the point where a reasonable person could say it was worth the self inflicted damage, that does not mean that the war has to end anytime soon. I don't think UA will fold without being nuked and Russia will likely reach that excessive pain point sometime in the next year or so where they declare victory roughly along the current line. That being said, wild cards are everywhere in war.
