WW3-Ukraine, Iran, China is asshoe thread.

Quote from Gina

rabidrabit , do you think Russia is going to be able to sustain this war?

That is a complicated conversation once you dig into it. In a nutshell, They are burning resources much faster than they can replace them however, they can continue doing so for at least a few more months. If the Ukes can't build up mobile forces to conduct combined arms pushes they run the risk of continuing to be dragged out in ww1 style trench warfare where Russia has some advantages. That is why they are asking for more tanks and IFV's. They don't want to get stuck mutually grinding away lives.

There are many facets to the conversation so ask away any I'll share my opinions on them.

Quote from El Sluggo Loco

Eventually Russia will become frustrated enough to pop off a nuke.

Among other things, they were told that doing so would result in NATO systematically annihilating any forces within UA borders. In short, if they used nukes, there is no winning scenario for them. And that is the judgement they would need to make. If they step over that line, what chance is there that doing so would have a positive result? That is their conundrum. Also, UA now has 4 patriot batteries which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles.

People throw things around likes is a simple world but it is far more complicated than that.

Quote from Gina

But I worry about Ukraine running out of resources.

UA has even more men under arms than the Russians so when it comes to a grinding trench war going on years, that is a possibility. Russia lost more than half their total mechanized vehicles so far and the replacement rate is well under the weekly loss rate. That is a problem for Russia and they are using the suicidal tactics they are now because they have few choices left.

War is a matter of will and ability. That is the long term factors. This will be over when one side runs out of at least one of those.

So, UA has the ability to resist Russia's limited ability to push them with them both stuck in trench warfare. UA is looking to increase it's ability to conduct mechanized warfare at scale enough to be decisive. They are about at parity with the Russians now tank and IFV wise but they need enough to both hold the line and also effect the rolling fist of combined arms maneuvers. That is why they are asking for tanks and IFVs.

Quote from ASTAC

Thank Goodness you are over here posting this stuff. I was wondering if you had quit, As I have said before I'm not on telegram, and my twitter feed has become too convoluted to find much of this on my own. Your updates are very informative and appreciated.

I'm glad people appreciate the effort. I can't bring myself to enable the Aryan Brotherhood pseudo religion fraud shitbag that is spamming FW. As long as he is there, I will do nothing to keep FW alive.

Quote from Gina

Usually that guy will appear for a couple weeks and then disappear for a year or two.

Probably after he violates parole and gets sent back where he belongs.

Estonia plans to close the Gulf of Finland to russia - the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Estonia, Urmas Reinsalu

\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83E\uDD1D\uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDEA pic.twitter.com/KVsQjPZJ5j

— Big Boss fella \uD83C\uDDEC\uD83C\uDDE7\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF2\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@fdd_th) January 23, 2023

When you lose most of your vehicles, you walk...

Quote

How Russia's tactics have changed since the beginning of the war - 4 strategies of the Russian command 1/#russianlosses #Russiawar #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/wgakM0LtX4
— Volodymyr Dacenko (@Volodymyr_D_) January 23, 2023

BAKHMUT /2125 UTC 23 JAN/ RU has continued incremental advances in the Bakhmut Area of Operations. N of Bakhmut, UKR troops are contesting a RU attack on Krasna Hora. UKR air defense downed 2 Russian Su-25 strike aircraft, a Ka-52 attack helicopter and an Orlan-10 recon UAV.

Ya, interesting to see how that aspect plays out.

Announcements are announcements. How it plays out, if at all is what matters.