Russia begins invasion of Ukraine - what now?

    Quote from Gina

    This is the Russian mindset


    https://news.yahoo.com/russias…ea-pushing-091433077.html


    Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders

    This in my opinion is why Toad's attitude of isolationism is always doomed to fail. If the US/NATO wasn't already keeping Russia busy in Ukraine, then it's Poland or Estonia or Moldova or Romania and we're right in the same position. By that measure, it could have been Ossetia or Crimea that there was a forceful response to, and then we wouldn't be talking about Donbas.


    For that matter, in WWII why did it take the invasion of Poland when perhaps it could have been short circuited earlier with Czechoslovakia or Sudetenland? Heck, why not re-occupation of the Rhineland? Had the "West" shown the will, things would have been much different.


    So my observation is, the conflict starts when the "West" finally decides it's time. Until they decide it's time, their inaction only emboldens the dictator to make more brazen moves, and the dictator gets more powerful in the meantime, not less.

    Brauno in a previous life, followed by LTARget. E25280 on the Forum.

    SWtarget in last AH in game incarnation.

    "Proudly drawing fire so my brothers may pass unharmed."

    Brauno in World of Tanks.

    "What is, is. What was, will be. What will be, was, but will be again." - Horseshack from Welcome Back Kotter

    Like 1
    Quote from Toad

    Don't you think that the more we get involved in Ukraine the more Xi sees a window of opportunity to do whatever he wants in the South China Sea and Taiwan? Do you think he'll pass on the opportunity?


    If he has a brain, he'll let Russia exhaust our war material supplies and then act. We are at a HUGE disadvantage in the Pacific to begin with because of the long logistics trail. Exacerbate that with empty war material warehouses. Xi has to be smiling.

    If Xi thinks this is giving him an opportunity, then he is a fool. Nothing the US is giving to Ukraine is in any way is depleting what would be brought to bear to defend Taiwan, or the Philippines, or Malaysia.

    Brauno in a previous life, followed by LTARget. E25280 on the Forum.

    SWtarget in last AH in game incarnation.

    "Proudly drawing fire so my brothers may pass unharmed."

    Brauno in World of Tanks.

    "What is, is. What was, will be. What will be, was, but will be again." - Horseshack from Welcome Back Kotter

    Quote from SWTarget

    If Xi thinks this is giving him an opportunity, then he is a fool. Nothing the US is giving to Ukraine is in any way is depleting what would be brought to bear to defend Taiwan, or the Philippines, or Malaysia.

    There is some limited crossover but not much. Mostly it might affect what we might send to Taiwan if hostilities break out. We are not invading China and they are not invading us.

    Quote from SWTarget

    This in my opinion is why Toad's attitude of isolationism is always doomed to fail.

    I'm not isolationist. OTOH, I'm not a NEOCON that just can't stop wanting to get the US involved in every war every where.


    Beans for Ukraine? Sure. Common military supplies and ammunition? Sure. Training their troops at facilities outside of Ukraine? Sure.


    Becoming a co-belligerent by acting as the real-time intelligence asset of the Uke military? No, no thank you very much.


    As for military stockpiles, I don't think some of you have a clue just how depleted the NATO and US stockpiles are becoming. Nor are you researching how long it will take to rebuild them and the cost to do so.


    But then I'm just an ignorant mouth-breathing whatever pejorative our elite reporter spits out.

    "I'm not isolationist. OTOH, I'm not a NEOCON that just can't stop wanting to get the US involved in every war every where.


    Beans for Ukraine? Sure. Common military supplies and ammunition? Sure. Training their troops at facilities outside of Ukraine? Sure."


    With you here. There is increasing danger as rhetoric and level of involvement increase. It is a dangerous road best traveled by exceptional leaders. We also probably agree that our current leadership could not be further away from exceptional.


    "Becoming a co-belligerent by acting as the real-time intelligence asset of the Uke military? No, no thank you very much."


    This is your personal arbitrary red line. For others it's somewhere further up the risk curve. To me personally, it's pretty far up the risk curve and should have been handled differently. Announcing it was stupid and unproductive.


    "As for military stockpiles, I don't think some of you have a clue just how depleted the NATO and US stockpiles are becoming. Nor are you researching how long it will take to rebuild them and the cost to do so."


    My own opinions are based on reading and asking questions of those who are directly involved. In my opinion, there is reason for concern going forward but many claims seem to be inaccurate in how costs are overstated and a number of other factors. The honest conversation is a lot more complex than the headline one.


    "But then I'm just an ignorant mouth-breathing whatever pejorative our elite reporter spits out."

    You made a number of comments and when asked to step beyond the headline talking points you threw a hissy fit. You could have handled yourself a number of different ways but chose poorly. That is on you. Unfortunately, you seem determined to continue instead of taking a breath and participating in a productive way. Every day people jump in threads and act poorly and somehow expect others to bear the burden. Don't be mad about being called out for your behavior, fix it.

    As to the stockpiles. Let me make an observation. I reload. Go out and try an purchase 1k primers of of any type. What was once 3-5 cents a piece is now at minimum 10 cents. If you can’t find any. You also will most likely not find your preferred brand. As an example I real like CCI 41s for 223/5.56 and 6.5 Grendel. They are a hard primer and will reliably touch off the hardest to light powders regardless of temp.

    They are classified as “a military” primer by CCI . I haven’t been able to purchase any since 2020.


    You tell me where they are all going.

    Quote from Lord Soth

    As to the stockpiles. Let me make an observation. I reload. Go out and try an purchase 1k primers of of any type. What was once 3-5 cents a piece is now at minimum 10 cents. If you can’t find any. You also will most likely not find your preferred brand. As an example I real like CCI 41s for 223/5.56 and 6.5 Grendel. They are a hard primer and will reliably touch off the hardest to light powders regardless of temp.

    They are classified as “a military” primer by CCI . I haven’t been able to purchase any since 2020.


    You tell me where they are all going.

    Honestly it's been a thing for years and I'm assuming the scarcity is mostly due to hoarding. I could be partially or mostly wrong though. I would think the supply/ demand curve would even out over time with an imbalance but as you pointed out, not so much with ammo.

    Quote from rabidrabit

    Honestly it's been a thing for years and I'm assuming the scarcity is mostly due to hoarding. I could be partially or mostly wrong though. I would think the supply/ demand curve would even out over time with an imbalance but as you pointed out, not so much with ammo.

    Nope, You can go out and buy popular loadings no problem. Not to mention at not the mark up components are. The manufacturers are running at capacity. I know they are filling large .gov contracts.

    Quote from Lord Soth

    Nope, You can go out and buy popular loadings no problem. Not to mention at not the mark up components are. The manufacturers are running at capacity. I know they are filling large .gov contracts.

    Before Feb 22 too? I'm assuming post Feb 22 is an additive factor but if I remember right, this has been going on for a while.

    Quote from rabidrabit

    Before Feb 22 too? I'm assuming post Feb 22 is an additive factor but if I remember right, this has been going on for a while.

    Here's the deal You can get all components except primers. Ammo companies are going as far as trading their high end components just to get primers. Those High end components do not go to the military. The primer manufactures as of now are focusing on filling military orders. All the other grades of primers trickle out when they get around to it.

    Quote from Lord Soth

    Here's the deal You can get all components except primers. Ammo companies are going as far as trading their high end components just to get primers. Those High end components do not go to the military. The primer manufactures as of now are focusing on filling military orders. All the other grades of primers trickle out when they get around to it.

    Am I correct in thinking it has been going of for years and Feb 22 just made the situation worse?

    Quote from Lord Soth

    It's a real problem. Take 6.5 Creedmoor as an example. I can run down to my local shop pick up everything BUT primers. If I am lucky he'll have some LR, but it wont be the cci 200s that I prefer.

    I'm shooting a moderate amount of 300 BO up at the lake house but have simply bought commercial but even that has been tough to find and expensive. I suspect 6.5 Creedmoor is at least as painful.

    Quote from rabidrabit

    I'm shooting a moderate amount of 300 BO up at the lake house but have simply bought commercial but even that has been tough to find and expensive. I suspect 6.5 Creedmoor is at least as painful.

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    The S&B is pure shit. Super hot and flattens primers. I haven't shot the aguila yet for plinking. Reloading doesnt save you $ but you sure do shoot a lot more.