Ukraine War thread.

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    A Rashist\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDFA Ka-52 helicopter has crashed in the Sea of #Azov pic.twitter.com/w0Ftuc1nLO
    — ???? South (@Azovsouth) September 4, 2023


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    Russians lost another Kamov Ka-52. According to the Russian TG Channel "Baza", the Ka-52 crashed 1.5 km from the coast of the Azov Sea (likely near their base in Berdyansk), due to heavy fog. Both crewmembers made it out alive.



    Source: https://t.co/J0BDTDeDNE#Ukraine #Russia pic.twitter.com/N4j52H3ALb
    — (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) September 4, 2023
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    A leaked report by Sergey Karaganov (co-authored by Aleksandr Kramarenko, Fyodor Lukyanov and Dmitry Trenin) (h/t @KassenovaNargis , link below) is the quintessence of Karaganov's school of foreign policy. A lot of acid stuff, but in the end of the day it's all about love. 1/7 pic.twitter.com/iymjlM9Xa1
    Sergey Utkin (@usv1980) September 4, 2023
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    The report suggests Russia shall leave the OSCE, focus on "world majority" organisations instead, drop the "pacta sunt servanda" principle (already accomplished, isn't it?), arms control and non-proliferation are all outdated policies. 2/7 https://t.co/FxxWIKHDdM
    Sergey Utkin (@usv1980) September 4, 2023
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    The report attacks the idea of strategic parity, which is the core of what Aleksey Arbatov is writing on nuclear issues, and criticises the view that any use of nuclear weapons would "inevitably lead" to a global nuclear war. 3/7
    Sergey Utkin (@usv1980) September 4, 2023
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    The report suggests military action in Ukraine had to be started much earlier, Ukraine's south and east are to be annexed and brainwashed, and the west of the country is to be bombed into an agrarian periphery (echoing notorious Morgenthau Plan for post-war Germany). 4/7 pic.twitter.com/If05yB6pSo
    Sergey Utkin (@usv1980) September 4, 2023
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    It looks like the report's co-authors (some of them often seen as more moderate than K.) signed up to Karaganov's well-known idea of preventive nuclear strikes against Poland. And their hope for Ukraine is that it will be no more... 5/7 pic.twitter.com/DdpBeQGm9X
    Sergey Utkin (@usv1980) September 4, 2023
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    While a couple of millions are to be resettled from Ukraine to Siberia (helping to move away from "West-centrism" and useful since "the West will remain adversarial for a long time") 6/7 pic.twitter.com/0zaYEdYwhj
    Sergey Utkin (@usv1980) September 4, 2023
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    While Karaganov's report reveals the anatomy of disastrous policies, this and similar papers are, of course, a reflection and a helping hand rather than the reason for what we are passing through. They reflect and amplify what they believe is on the mind of THE decision-maker.7/7
    Sergey Utkin (@usv1980) September 4, 2023
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    \uD83E\uDDF53/5 On nuclear non-pro in particular, argues that it has primarily benefitted US and that supporting nuclear proliferation in countries like Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc. would not increase risk of conflict or threats to Russia but would be to the detriment of US interests.
    Darya Dolzikova (@DDolzikova) September 4, 2023
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    \uD83E\uDDF54/5 Calls for Russian withdrawal from the MTCR. Withdrawal from NPT not necessary for not, instead Russia should continue to “facetiously” support calls for disarmament under NPT. Notes that further proliferation will eventually decrease opposition to them.
    Darya Dolzikova (@DDolzikova) September 4, 2023
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    \uD83E\uDDF55/5 Argues for transfer of nuclear tech to Iran (if it stops threatening to destroy Israel) and for withdrawal from the Iran and DPRK sanctions regimes. Removal of even some DPRK sanctions means “hardworking and disciplined” North Koreans can come re-construct Siberia…



    Wild.
    Darya Dolzikova (@DDolzikova) September 4, 2023

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    Quote from rabidrabit

    The article is kind of trash. For example...


    "The 2nd ACR’s powerful M1A1 Abrams were following close behind their Bradleys, which were equipped with thermal imaging sights to help cut through the low-visibility desert."


    Both the Brads and Abrams had great thermals. The Abrams were in no way dependent on the Brads due to their lacking them.

    I read that article and didn't come away with the impression that the Abrams didn't have thermal sights.


    Fact, for whatever reason, the Abrams were following the Bradley's.

    Quote from Elf Man

    I read that article and didn't come away with the impression that the Abrams didn't have thermal sights.


    Fact, for whatever reason, the Abrams were following the Bradley's.

    OK, fair enough. I was on my first cup of coffee.


    There are tactical reasons why the Brads or Abrams would lead depending on doctrine.

    Moot point I suppose, even in '91 we could accurately hit them at night from far beyond any range from which they could even detect us

    Well respected man about town doing the best things most conservatively

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    Quote
    The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area is developing in a positive direction for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has further penetrated the first Surovikin line near Verbove, now reaching the main trenchline.

    Ukrainians have also overran Russian positions south of Robotyne. 1/ pic.twitter.com/FxgNciYQeS
    Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) September 4, 2023


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    It seems the Ukrainians have established a more permanent foothold in the outskirts of Verbove, and it's not just recon operations.



    However, this isn't a breakthrough yet - we haven't seen quick maneuvers or Ukrainian armored vehicles operating beyond the dragon's teeth. 2/
    Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) September 4, 2023
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    I'm actually somewhat surprised the Ukrainians have managed to capture the positions south of Robotyne. It's still a bit unclear which parts are they holding, but I presume the larger trench complex is still under Russian control. 3/ pic.twitter.com/U2q1caQCfY
    Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) September 4, 2023


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    The Russian defence is likely experiencing difficulties. They haven't been able to push Ukrainians back anywhere in this sector.



    The situation can be even worse for the Russians than shown here - the map is a conservative estimate based on geolocations and satellite imagery. 3/
    Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) September 4, 2023


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    Looking at the maps, there really aren't any Russian defensive networks south of, say, Oceretuvate/Romanivske/Charkove line, or they just aren't on the maps yet?
    Albertin Disparue (@albertineK666) September 4, 2023
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    It seems there has not been any major fortification work there. Of course some preparations can be done without us noticing, but for example no long trenchlines or anti-tank obstacles have been observed.
    Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) September 4, 2023


    Limited arty ammo forces Russians to alter doctrine and start aiming.


    Institute for the Study of War


    Limitations on Russian artillery capabilities and Ukrainian advantages in counter-battery fire are forcing the Russians to deviate from their own doctrine, RUSI reported. RUSI stated that Russian forces have been attempting to adapt their fire doctrine since before Ukrainian counteroffensive operations began.[11] RUSI noted that Russian forces are attempting to prioritize strike accuracy over volume because they lack enough ammunition to sustain doctrinally designated artillery fire, have difficulties transporting a large volume of ammunition to frontline areas, and are seeing diminishing effectiveness of mass strikes as they lose counterbattery radars and their guns suffer from barrel wear.

    [12] RUSI stated that Russian forces are attempting to increase the production of Krasnopol laser-guided shells and the use of Lancet drones (loitering munitions) in order to increase accuracy and reduce the number of munitions used in attacks.[13] RUSI also observed that Russian forces have often prepared their fighting positions for remote demolition with improvised explosives instead of striking their own positions with artillery after Russian forces have withdrawn, as Russian doctrine dictates.[14] These adaptations suggest that reduced Russian artillery capabilities may be further weakening the Russian defense in certain sectors as artillery fire is a critical component of the Russian elastic defense.

    A shift towards more precise fire doctrine may allow Russian forces to strengthen these capabilities, but constraints on Russian training capacity will likely prevent Russian forces from implementing this shift at scale in the near term. Russian sources have continually claimed since the start of the counteroffensive that the Russians lack sufficient counterbattery capabilities on various sectors of the front.[15] Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Commander Colonel Margo Grosberg reported on September 1 that Ukrainian artillery capabilities are “equal or even better” than those of Russian forces and have been able to push Russian artillery units back from the frontline, preventing them from supporting Russian forces.[16]

    cpy/pst


    "Putin has no idea why the Soviet Union fell apart. His whole story of why the Soviet Union fell apart is utter nonsense. The story that they tell is that the Americans wanted it to happen and therefore it happened, which A, we’re not that powerful, and B - and I was there at the time - our policy in 1991 was to keep the Soviet Union together; it wasn’t to make it fall apart." -Snyder

    Timothy Snyder | FRONTLINE
    www.pbs.org

    And I'm not saying we set the price of oil, that would be ridiculous. That's a global marketplace. Sorry if I didn't explain that well enough. I'm saying the set the price of Russian oil. Here's a quick explainer on what the coalition did:

    The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports, Explained

    And here's geostrategist Peter Zeihan on it:

    Russian Oil Price Cap: Lasting Impacts
    Unless you live under a rock, you've probably heard that Europe has placed a $60 price cap on Russian crude exports.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeiha...
    www.youtube.com

    Now, in April the global price of oil went down to the lowest it has been since they started recording it in the 1980s. As global prices go up in the summer when people are driving more, some people are trying to get around the Russian oil price cap and maybe pay a little more for Russian oil, but it's a small and insignificant impact. Most buying are sticking to the cap price. In July Russia reported their oil revenues aredown 47% from last year and that's Russia's number.

    As for blockades... no one would dare attack us over it except maybe China and we wouldn't need to blockade them. Our navy is strong enough we could easily stop all shipping of all Russian oil. Regardless of the financial pressure we could put on shippers of Russian oil. It's just not something we want to do. We want the oil flowing.

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    \uD83D\uDEA8\uD83C\uDDF2\uD83C\uDDE9BREAKING: Romania’s TRANSGAZ signs the takeover of Gazprom’s infrastructure in Moldova and Transnistria ??1/2 pic.twitter.com/wsozDXCO82
    — Dacian Draco\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDF4\uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA (@AndreiS49747209) September 4, 2023
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    “\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDF4Romania’s TRANSGAZ has signed the takeover of Moldova’s national gas system from Gazprom

    It was put on sale since Gazprom stopped complying to Moldovan legislation in which is aligned to European legislation

    The Romanian (NATO-EU) operator takes over 19th Sep all assets&ops”
    — Dacian Draco\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDF4\uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA (@AndreiS49747209) September 4, 2023
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    Romania is fully soverign on the gas domain. With 100% local production and transport.

    This will mean Transnistria will have come for gas to \uD83C\uDDF2\uD83C\uDDE9Chisinau or \uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDF4Bucharest \uD83D\uDD25
    — Dacian Draco\uD83C\uDDF7\uD83C\uDDF4\uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA (@AndreiS49747209) September 4, 2023
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    This morning multiple RU channels reported a UA offensive around Novodonets'ke, Novomaiors'ke and yesterday there were reports about activity around Shevchenko. pic.twitter.com/YtzHEexWst
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) September 5, 2023


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    Reports this morning by RU telegram channels. https://t.co/Kl1P6NV27Zhttps://t.co/KxXmRm4aLV pic.twitter.com/7lPz4YiTCO
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) September 5, 2023



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    A bit later Alexander Khodakovsky posted this update:



    "As a result, the enemy was able to come close to our positions, almost without suffering losses, landed troops"https://t.co/wK0jWCTiBS pic.twitter.com/tj37Lpprcl
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) September 5, 2023


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    The latest update by Alexander Khodakovsky indicates progress for the AFU. https://t.co/wK0jWCTiBS pic.twitter.com/JLzfVEcPzP
    Def Mon (@DefMon3) September 5, 2023


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