Ukraine War thread.

    The weird thing is the Russians seem to have gutted pretty much all their defenses along the Uke border to focus on Bakhmut so even a few dozen guys just walk across the border and claim several towns.


    ??Russian state media: 'Majority' of residents flee Belgorod Oblast villages along border.

    Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Russia's Belgorod Oblast, said that the "majority" of residents in the border villages of Russia's Belgorod Oblast have fled.

    The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 22, 2023


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    I post this one yet?


    BREAKING: Putin announces another Special Military Operation to defend Russian-speaking Russians from Russians invading Russia from Russia pic.twitter.com/owOXQu9AjW

    — Sputnik (@Sputnik_Not) May 22, 2023

    The Freedom for Russia Legion captured a R-330ZH Zhitel Mobile truck-mounted jamming communication station in Belgorod today after fighting their way in from Ukraine.

    \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 pic.twitter.com/tsgf2kVUsw

    — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 22, 2023



    Ilya Ponomarev, leader of the political wing of the Freedom of Russia Legion, on LBC: "at the end of the day, this war can end only in Moscow, when Putin's regime is replaced, and obviously it would not be done by Ukrainians or NATO forces, it will be done by Russians. It's our… pic.twitter.com/GYQPNO9PxK

    — GWAR69 \uD83C\uDDE9\uD83C\uDDF0\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@GwarWorin) May 22, 2023




    The self-proclaimed "governor" of the BNR, Gladkov, admitted that, as of now, the Russian army has not yet been able to regain control over "its" territories.

    Bilhorod People's Republic holds! ? pic.twitter.com/GHFnt3trIB

    — ?????????? ???????? (@ne_vluchiv) May 23, 2023


    ? ISW: Russian information space incoherent after reports of fighting in Belgorod Oblast.

    The Russian information space experienced "panic, factionalism, and incoherency" after reports of fighting in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War said.

    The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 23, 2023


    Ukraine Situation Report: Attack Inside Russia Continues With Strikes On Government Buildingshttps://t.co/SPtZtvz4jD

    — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) May 23, 2023



    The governor of Russia’s Belgorod region says the Kremlin’s operation to clear partisans from the region is ongoing this morning and civilians cannot yet return. Meanwhile the “Free Russia” legion says they “met the dawn in the liberated territory” and plan to press on.

    Maxim Tucker (@MaxRTucker) May 23, 2023


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    Today at a press conference, Peskov was asked why the 10 Billion ruble defense line in Belgorod failed to stop the incursion (I didn’t make that number up)

    “The presidential administration can not assess the characteristics of protective structures.”https://t.co/3dAKBqGi9P https://t.co/9gESxYWGBT pic.twitter.com/FjdVQbnY0w

    Artoir (@ItsArtoir) May 23, 2023


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    Rybar has released a update on the situation in Belgorod region.



    In short: Fighting is ongoing. "Ukrainian saboteurs" have entrenched themselves and they are receiving reinforcements.https://t.co/tbOTIlJ47k pic.twitter.com/4NeMzkKQwg
    — Faytuks News ? (@Faytuks) May 23, 2023


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    Quote
    Strelkov-Girkin on Prigozhins military genius...



    <<"At the beginning of the siege of Bakhmut, there were 35,000 fighters in the ranks of PMCs. For the entire time of the SVO, 50,000 people were recruited among prisoners. 20% of them ( 10,000 prisoners ) died in battle. Another…
    — OSINT (Uri) \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@UKikaski) May 24, 2023

    For reference: for 10 years of the Afghan war from 1979 to 1989. The Soviet Army lost 15,051 servicemen.

    I hope to explain what a "meat assault" is not necessary.Okay, let's say "only" 20 thousand killed. (I think more, but "I did not stand with a candle"). We multiply by 2 (another 20 thousand crippled or seriously wounded who cannot return to duty) - and we get 40 thousand irretrievable losses of the Wagner. MINIMUM. During the assault on Izmail, Suvorov lost exactly 10 times less killed and wounded, and took the fortress in one day (at the same time, the losses of the Turks were significantly more than 20 thousand killed alone). Now tell me about the "art of the general" of the Wagner commanders.

    More about what I have already noted in the "telegram".

    Prigozhin publicly acknowledged the losses of PMC "Wagner" in TWENTY THOUSAND PEOPLE ONLY KILLED. (10 thousand - "ZeKa" and 10 thousand - personnel fighters of "Wagner").

    According to some of the data I have, the losses of the Wagner, even for a six-month operation that ended with the assault on Bakhmut, are more (at least one and a half times), but I have never voiced this figure anywhere and did not intend to, while the Veselchak U himself (he is also called "Garcon") did not talk about it (from his indescribably great mind).

    However, I am quite ready to proceed from the figures that Evgeny Viktorovich announced. Let's take a look at them in more detail. So H.V.P. says that the Wagner received 50,000 "special contingents" from places of deprivation of liberty. Of these, 10 thousand were killed. Fine. Let's say. But earlier, the same little man said that 26,000 "zeks" received an amnesty and returned "to the national economy." We subtract 10 and 26 from 50 thousand ... And where are the other 14 thousand???

    Well, some of them, for example, are listed as "missing" ... (which is tantamount to death for 99%). But the majority, most likely, seriously wounded and crippled, are lying around in hospitals. Most of them will never return to service. Part - after recovery - will be able to carry out only auxiliary or rear service.

    Thus. Of the 50,000 ZEKs, practically every second one fell into the "irretrievable losses".

    Just based on the realities of the current war (the main losses - up to 98% - from artillery fire) - for two killed, there are about three seriously, wounded, of which one will return to duty in a few months (if he has the desire and motivation to do so, which also does not always happen), one more - within a year or a year and a half, and the third will remain a cripple for life and will be unfit for service at all.

    Thus - at the very minimum - "Wagner" suffered irretrievable losses on the way from Popasnaya to the western outskirts of Bakhmut - 40 thousand people.

    To this we must add the losses of the units and subunits of the RF Armed Forces dowry to "Wagner" - both personnel and various volunteers (and from the former Corps of the People's Militia of the LDNR). They are big too, no doubt about it.

    Estimates of the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the battles for Soledar-Bakhmut fluctuate in the region of 45-50 thousand people killed. Perhaps the figure is somewhat exaggerated.

    However, in general, the irretrievable losses of the Russian Defense Ministry and all military formations in killed and wounded - in the battle for Soledar-Bakhmut, amount to about 50 thousand people. Which is approximately equal to the losses of the APU.

    So the question is - "who peramalival whom"?

    "Tales" by Yevgeny Viktorovich, who lost 40 thousand people killed and wounded and lost another 26 thousand people - simply "who left for the civilian ZeKa" (not counting the constant mass departure at the end of contracts and "personnel Wagners" who do not like "meat attacks" very much ), that "Wagner" is not bloodless - they are for "suckers" (in its category of values). If he is still combat-ready, then why does such a "successfully" operation not continue? Why are the "musicians" not chasing the enemy behind Chasov Yar - to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, but hastily going to the rear to reorganize?

    We consider: 35 thousand fighters at the beginning of the operation. Add 50 thousand "Zeka" = 85 thousand. We minus 40 thousand killed and wounded (at a minimum I take) and 26 thousand dismissed at the end of the six-month "penal battalion" = 66 thousand. 85 - 66 = 19.

    Even if we assume that "Wagner" actually receives "10 thousand a month" (he's lying, it used to be like this - before the "meat assaults", now there are "no fools" or, in any case, much less than it was - "the best in hell "far from all volunteers want to become) - and still they still need to be trained, put together, etc., but this takes time.

    Disrespectful Evgeny Viktorovich constantly accuses (very often - quite rightly) the RF Ministry of Defense of various kinds of fraud, fraud and lies. But he himself is lying like a gray gelding (or rather, like an urka at a trial). And he accuses military commanders of exactly what he HAD DONE.

    The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation \uD83E\uDD21 confirms the attack on the ship "Ivan Hurs"

    They publish a video of the destruction of one of the sea drones, what happened to the other two is unknown \uD83D\uDC40 pic.twitter.com/NdzKMy46os

    — MAKS 23 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83D\uDD1C (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) May 24, 2023



    multiple claims that the Russian MOD video is fake:


    1. That is not a naval drone, that is small motor boat with human crew.

    2. It was sunk outside of Somalia years ago.

    — Carl Rehnberg (@Carl_Rehnberg2) May 24, 2023

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    Answering journalists' questions, the leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps, White Rex, says the unit had no losses during the Belgorod incident, only two wounded. He somewhat dodges questions about American combat vehicles, saying these could be re-captured from Russians,… pic.twitter.com/mQRSPIfvlA
    Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 24, 2023

    With excerpt translated:

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    A part of today's press-conference of "Russian Volunteer Corps" and "Freedom for Russia Legion".



    They consider their operation successful as they were able to cross the border into Russia and back, and locals showed them a lot of support. pic.twitter.com/bnlXpEQ63N
    — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 24, 2023
    Quote
    Free Russia Legion published a separate comment on the press conference, saying Russians did not show much resistance despite numerical superiority, and bombed their own citizens trying to hit the group. The Legion appears to have suffered more serious casualties than the Corps -… pic.twitter.com/0wBbwdUsrV
    Dmitri (@wartranslated) May 24, 2023

    The Legion appears to have suffered more serious casualties than the Corps - two dead and ten wounded combined. This is in contrast with the Corps who are said to have lost two people wounded. It is still unclear whether the two groups were fighting in the same area, or separately.



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