Ukraine War thread.

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    Ukraine is now the side with the artillery overmatch... thanks to DPICM - the best artillery ammo ever. https://t.co/lB6nIT58Pz
    Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) August 19, 2023

    Thomas C. Theiner on X
    “Ukraine is now the side with the artillery overmatch... thanks to DPICM - the best artillery ammo ever.”
    twitter.com

    Ukraine is now the side with the artillery overmatch... thanks to DPICM - the best artillery ammo ever.


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    This illustrates that the Russians had moved everything on the front. There is no real defense in depth, but a retrograde under fire. A lineal defense is in a world of hurt when it starts breaking. Journalists and POGs have been wrong more than they have been right. Eventually… https://t.co/ZNzC8SYFfB
    Randy Mott (@randymot4) August 19, 2023

    Eventually Russian units above the breaches will be encircled and taken out by artillery fire until they flee or surrender. There are no Russian units off the line to rush up to seal the breaches.

    OSINT (Uri) 🇺🇦 on X
    “Update on the Staromaiorske AO, Mariupol' Axis The AFU is concentrating on four key areas in the region. Russian sources describe the situation as…
    twitter.com

    Update on the Staromaiorske AO, Mariupol' Axis

    The AFU is concentrating on four key areas in the region. Russian sources describe the situation as "difficult."

    "The battle for Staromlynivka has begun. If the Tuvan degenerate (Shoigu) surrenders it, too, it will already be a strategic defeat, which will mark the complete collapse of the front in the Zaporozhye direction." -- Alex Parker Returns

    Note: The following are based on OSINT for existing conditions and my forecasts (dashed) for future AFU efforts in the region.

    1) #Pryyutne - AFU units are increasing their efforts to capture/pressure Pryyutne from the north to secure their right flank. Once captured, they will continue moving southward to secure Remivka and Volodyne

    2) #ZavitneBazhannya - AFU units are advancing southward from Staramaiorske west of the Mokri Yaly River towards Zavitne Bazhannya. Once captured, they will continue moving southward towards the western part of Staromlynivka and to assist in securing Volodyne.

    3) #Staromlynivka - AFU units are advancing southward from Urozhaine east of the Mokri Yaly River towards Staromlynivka. Indications are they have begun to engage Russian occupiers on the northern outskirts of the settlement with the primary goal securing the Kermenchyk road prior to focusing on the capture of Staromlynivka. Note: Yesterday, AFU units clearing the agricultural areas south and east of Urozhaine came under Russian artillery fire and sustained significant losses. However, they did manage successes but at a high cost. The debate is whether the orcs are getting their shit together along this LOC or the AFU really f'ed it all up. Cope or not, most UA mil-analysts are leaning towards the latter.

    4) #Novodonetske - AFU units are pressuring Novodonetske from the northwest to secure their left flank. Once captured, they will continue moving southward to secure Kermenchyk.



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    All the maps and claims of gains tend to lack any sense of scale other than what your eyes see, which is that they're crowing about the gain of a couple farm fields. I found a site (maybe posted before but not going to go back looking for something that may or may not be there) that has a day by day assessment of who is in control where:

    Interactive Time-lapse: Russia's War in Ukraine
    This interactive time-lapse complements static control-of-terrain maps that ISW produces by showing a dynamic frontline.
    storymaps.arcgis.com


    And kind as I've expected, there's very little actual gains being made by either side for a long time.



    May as well be comparing maps of the western front from 1916. Maybe one side or the other is on the verge of a major breakthrough, or something has happened in the last 3 weeks, but not seeing it yet on this site.


    Tricky balance for the Ukraine side. They have to play up the small gains to make it seem there could be an end in site and thus maintain support, but I think if they play it up too much they also risk losing support when it seems they are not giving a truthful picture of the strategic outlook.

    Brauno in a previous life, followed by LTARget. E25280 on the Forum.

    SWtarget in last AH in game incarnation.

    "Proudly drawing fire so my brothers may pass unharmed."

    Brauno in World of Tanks.

    "What is, is. What was, will be. What will be, was, but will be again." - Horseshack from Welcome Back Kotter

    Don't disagree. The question comes down to whether the Ukes can break the Russian lines and they begin to get routed. There is a chance in the south which is what my last post hinted but it falls under the "I'll believe it when I see it" category.


    I don't think the Russians have a lot of gas left but if they can wear down the Ukes enough where neither side can really do much and western support falters then that pretty much is the end point. The Ukes need some real progress to keep the support coming.


    That is the way I see it. It's not really about land as it is breaking the enemies ability to continue.


    I'll add that Ukes are close to shutting down the main road across the land bridge and they already have the RR line under fire control. If they take out the Kerch Bridge and push much further south it will be increasingly hard for Russia to hold on to Crimea.

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    08.19.23 Sentinel 2LA SWIR image for Robotyne and Novoprokopivka. The orange areas are fires, the brown areas are where there has been extremely heavy artillery fire.
    Multiple Russian sources have been claiming Ukraine was flanking Robotyne - sure looks like that is true. pic.twitter.com/qRnI1Wu3Nc
    Malcontent News (@MalcontentmentT) August 20, 2023


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    Ukrainian troops are not exactly chilling in the open in the center of Robotyne, but no fighting - the video is older (not 8/19/23).



    There is a lot of evidence Ukraine has broken through Robotyne https://t.co/47FjKo3Pr5
    Malcontent News (@MalcontentmentT) August 20, 2023

    History snapshot of Soviet space hilarity…

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    Soviet cosmonaut Alexei Leonov's notes about mankind's first-ever spacewalk on March 18, 1965 aboard Voskhod-2

    "Russian cosmonautics – it’s a comedy of horrors. A cosmonaut, who for the first time in the history of mankind ventured into outer space, was unable to get back on… pic.twitter.com/dZoHP9jUwg
    Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) August 9, 2023

    He was floating on the end of a 5-meter cable above the planet, but when it was time to get back in - it turned out that the spacesuit swelled and did not fit through the airlock. In order to get in, he had to depressurize the spacesuit to 0.27 of Earth's pressure - such pressure corresponds to about 3 kilometers above Everest.


    Miraculously, he didn't lose consciousness. But then he couldn’t fit through the second airlock. He managed to get into it only by flagrantly violating the instructions - head first, not feet first. He then collapsed next to his comrade.

    After barely catching breath, the news came - the automated navigation system for returning back to Earth was broken. Again, for the first time in the history of mankind, the spaceship had to return to the planet manually.

    The one window on the new Voskhod-2 spaceship looked out to the side. Only the stars could be seen through this window. If you started the engine facing the wrong way, instead of returning, you would fly far away and stay there forever. The cosmonauts desperately crawled around the cabin, looked through the ill-fated porthole from different angles, made out from memory where the Big Dipper was and where the Earth should be, and finally started the engine.

    It probably sounds funny now, but again, for the first time in the history of mankind, they took their seats with the rocket engine running, the acceleration of which was about to turn them into pancakes. Where the spacecraft will take them remained a mystery. They don't remember much of the descent. They woke up, got out. There were snowdrifts up to their waists. It was cold: -30°C (-22°F).

    The spaceship had a lot of survival equipment - fishing hooks, shark repellent, a single TT pistol, and so on. But they didn't think about the cold. The cosmonauts took off their spacesuits, each poured out 5 liters of sweat, built a fire while naked, wrapped themselves thoroughly and waited, periodically clicking the morse code - 'S.O.S.'

    They didn't vary the message - what else was there to signal to the whole planet? We are Soviet cosmonauts, we are in the middle of nowhere, we are not well.... The signal was being blocked by trees. The cosmonauts guessed, moved through the snowdrifts.

    Eventually, the SOS signal was picked up in Bonn. The Germans immediately informed the Kremlin.

    Our people refused to believe the Germans. And at that time - the only thing the Mission Control Center knew about the missing cosmonauts was that they had landed somewhere in Russia.

    Hundreds of helicopters were in the air combing the area. At the same time, TV reported that the cosmonauts had landed safely and were resting in a sanatorium.

    The pause between this message and the appearance of the cosmonauts themselves on the screen was clearly dragging on. Brezhnev couldn't stand it any longer, so he called Korolev and asked what the hell was going on. Korolev angrily replied: 'My business is to launch cosmonauts, yours – to announce. You should hurry up, not me.'

    Finally, one of the helicopters detected a campfire and two unfortunate cosmonauts near it. But it was impossible to land there. A group of skiers went on foot to clear the path to the site with axes. And gifts rained from the sky - warm clothes and cases of cognac. All the clothes got stuck on the trees, and the cognac cases were shattering all around, the astronauts swore grimly as they dodged them.'

    \uD83D\uDCA5 LEAK: Russia's spacecraft Luna 25 which was supposed to land on the moon in demonstration of the fascist nation's 'might' has crashed. Theft and corruption is already being blamed by the insiders. pic.twitter.com/Bb2L4CJnLH

    Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) August 19, 2023


    Not even the finest Ukrainian washing machine circuitry could save poor Ruskie Looney-25. Astronomers have renamed to moon plains where it crashed as The Sea of Trashnik.


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    Oh yeah, that is one dead Tu-22M bomber.


    Russians claimed it was "damaged"


    That appears to be a very toasty Tu-22M3 Backfire strategic bomber...

    I think the "damaged" label would be a slight understatement.

    I still hope that someone will publish satellite images of that airbase (there was a conflicting info whether 1 or 2 were damaged/destroyed) https://t.co/LTLFwTLy5x

    Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) August 20, 2023


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    BREAKING. The first results of the #Ukrainian investigation into the yesterday's #missile attack on #Chernihiv city demonstrate that #Russia used the Iskander-M, a mobile guided ballistic missile system code named SS-26 Stone by NATO. The fuse of the 1,000–1,500 lb warhead was… pic.twitter.com/yNXl0XI18z
    Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) August 20, 2023

    The fuse of the 1,000–1,500 lb warhead was set up by the #Russians for the burst in the air on approach to the target - so to maximize the civilian casualties in the crowded downtown area. Moreover, seven months ago Russia deployed Iskander-M to #Belarus to easily target the northern, central, and western #Ukraine regions. [Source: the representative of the office of the Procecutor General Yuri Belousov on Ukr. TV. Photo is illustrative.]


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    SCENES OF DESTRUCTION:

    The bombed theater in Chernihiv, with scenes of utter destruction. Seven dead, and a hundred and thirty injured - and a center of culture left as you see it now. pic.twitter.com/48mJJlfUGj
    Aleksandr X (@AleksandrX13) August 20, 2023
    Quote from rabidrabit

    Don't disagree.


    Sure everyone knows etc.


    What you see is what you are allowed to see.


    So far Ukrops can't even reach first line of Russian defense. If they do - they say it's unfair when Russians leave the trenches mined and if not - they are already targeted by Russian artillery.


    What you say about Starozhopovka (Old Ass? Mill?) or however it's called - they heroically take another farm of three huts and get shelled the hell out of there. Some piglets never learn.


    It seems like Ukropeans try do kill as many of their "servicemen" 50+ drafted by force. When they send their last reserve into a suicidal attack against first line - I can't find any other explanation.

    Interesting. They call us "pig-dogs", we laugh. We call them piglets by their totem animal - they get their asses on fire. Ukes are serious as a cancer, and it makes us laugh.


    Russians send a probe to the Moon and fail. Ukes make a world's biggest trident (trizub) from manure and succeed.