Ukraine War thread.

    Quote from Boroda

    King has many isn't our slogan, with M1 destroyed one shot from T-72 or a couple of pogankas (RPGs) you have no chance.


    I have told you, I studied a weapon engineer conventional warheads. D-81, a 125mm smoothbore cannon is something of an engineering marvel. You don't have a concept of engineering art. A gun sending an AP sabot at 1850 meters per second having recoil of 30 cm - when a 40 ton tank on asphalt moves a meter back with each shot.

    You've done it by taking tanks as old as World war II era out of storage and trying to refurbish them. But you're running out of those now. You can't produce tanks as fast as you're losing them.


    You've got maybe two or three years at this rate before you're fucked

    I can't imagine a scenario where the US would lose 3000 tanks, let alone to a country like Ukraine. For one, we would not allow our forces to be slaughterd like you guys do.


    Your inept military STILL has not gained ANY control of the skies in Ukraine The USA would have done that in three days tops. We could have won that war in 30 days - and coming from half a world away.

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    - Overview
    Situation is not dire, but trending negatively. Ukraine is actively working to stabilize the front line and seems to be succeeding here.

    Ukraine is dealing with 3 main problems: manpower, fortifications, and ammunition.

    They are currently building the fortifications.

    They are trying to solve the manpower issue, but this has the longest lead time to solve.

    Ammunition is mostly dependent on western support: USA, EU, and Czech initiative.


    -Manpower
    Law scheduled for second reading in a few weeks. This legislation has been extremely slow, especially considering how bad the situation is. This was initiated in November and is still ongoing in March.

    3 pieces to the manpower issue:
    1. Conducting an audit: Figuring out who they have, who is where, who is performing what tasks.

    2. Recruitment process: extremely inefficient currently.

    3. Initiating mobilization: changing the terms of service. 70% of infantry get wounded. The only way to get out is to be injured or killed currently. Ukraine needs to create fair terms of service for mobilized soldiers in order to make people more likely to join.

    President sent this to parliament. It is a heavily politicized issue. Politics is slowing it down; 4000 proposed amendments. Zelenskyy has not been very vocal on this. Military is probably working on the first 2 issues already, but parliament needs to figure out something soon.

    Manpower is the key issue this year. After it's passed, probably a 60 day notice and then training.

    If the the ammo issue is solved, it be sent immediately. If the manpower issue is not solved soon then it will be too late for the summer offensive.


    -Drones
    Drones are a useful offset to conventional capabilities like ATGM and artillery, but they are a crutch, not a solution. Far more effective on defense than offensive.

    Contest between drones and EW counters are very narrow. A lot of debate on how effective drones will be in the future, even as soon as this summer.

    Early employment of strike drones was largely a contest of quantity, but now it's evolving to quality since EW is becoming more effective at dealing with drones. Only a few drones can be on the same frequency, operating in the same space and time. Coordination is difficult, lots of them being used in tandem is difficult.

    -Russian advantages

    Ukraine is managing the 5:1 advantage Russia enjoys in artillery fires.

    The added use of glide bombs has been devastating though. Even though they aren't that accurate, they are using 80+ a day at key areas and the craters they form are huge.

    Russia also has an advantage in equipment production, repairing and restoring vehicles from Soviet stocks.

    Russia has dedicated engineering brigades for building fortifications which Ukraine does not have. Ukraine has these built into their brigades, but they are meant to build their forward trenches, not their second and third defensive lines.

    -Where does Russia go after Avdiivka

    Russia is still making incremental gains, not breakthroughs. It's not clear where the line will stabilize.

    They are inching towards Pokrovsk, a major intersection and transit hub. This puts Ukrainian rear areas within reach of Russian drones, which could be why there are more high value assets being destroyed: patriots, helicopters etc.

    Russia is still trying to take the rest of Donbas and taking Pokrovsk is a major step. Taking Chasiv Yar is another goal in order to accomplish this since it is an important high ground.

    Russian plan hasn't changed. More a question of what the state of Ukraine's forces are in the second half of this year than what Russia will do.

    -Fortifications and random thoughts

    Actively building fortifications. Have a network planned. The line will look different from Russia's. Secondary and third lines are planned as well.

    He was surprised to see how effectively Ukraine has managed to create cheap gun-based air defense to hit long range drones. Combined with a network of sensors and EW systems, this is extremely effective against Shaheds and cruise missiles. These could be very useful for smaller countries that don't have massive GDPs to spend on defense.

    Threat of execution and executions are extremely prevalent with Russian forces. (Bakhmut did not destroy Wagner. It burst the organization and spread its tactics throughout the armed forces: more prevalent use of cannon fodder such as Storm Z and Shtorm Z, executions, overall Wagnerization of the Russian armed forces.)

    Ukrainian intercepts show that money is also a huge motivator for assault groups: wives and girlfriends telling their partners to volunteer for an assault group for more money.

    Quote
    Posting last week and the week before's data on Russian gasoline and diesel production. You have to track the decline week by week however. Gasoline production for the week at 838,9 last week and 838,5 the week prior were already comperatively low if we look at Jan/Dec. pic.twitter.com/LErnAcuVuY
    Stanimir Dobrev (@delfoo) March 17, 2024


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    Quote
    For reference this is what production looked in December 2023 prior to the refinery stopages and attacks and before the holidays in Russia: pic.twitter.com/a6VvAXiTAF
    Stanimir Dobrev (@delfoo) March 17, 2024


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    Quote
    Lukoil's Nizhny Novogorod refinery has been partially down almost since the start of January as they can't replace a western part. That was what started the big gasoline problems. That is to say even without the the attacks they were moderately bleeped.
    Stanimir Dobrev (@delfoo) March 17, 2024

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    AFU's big guns are barking again along the entire line of contact

    (https://t.co/IcVNoMORgd)

    One million 155-mm projectiles have already been delivered to Ukraine from the EU — European Commissioner for Internal Trade and Services

    -- 550,000 shells were delivered at the end of… pic.twitter.com/ET7fSWL36Z

    — OSINT (Uri) \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF8 \uD83C\uDDE8\uD83C\uDDE6 \uD83C\uDDEC\uD83C\uDDE7 \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 \uD83C\uDDEE\uD83C\uDDF1 (@UKikaski) March 18, 2024

    Quote from Gina

    I just read a story that, I think it was Czechoslovakia, found 700,000 more shells for Ukraine

    Media: Czech Republic found another 700,000 shells for Ukraine
    The Czech Republic has found an opportunity to purchase additional ammunition as part of an initiative to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine
    mil.in.ua


    Quote
    I would not be surprised if there’s 2-3 million shells that can be sent to Ukraine from outside Europe and the U.S the Czechs have so far identified 1.5 million they can buy. Depending on the price they are willing to pay and how many concessions they’ll make you could see many +
    the cameron account. (@cameron19460429) March 18, 2024
    Quote
    According to WSJ, Czechia plans to pay 3 billion euros for all 1.5 million shells. Belgium gave 200 million euros for 50k 155m shells, at 4k euros a shell. If all 500k 155mm shells are that price, they would cost 2 billion euros. So,I think the remaininghttps://t.co/dbN86NRjoy
    Edward Snow (@NedSnow2019) March 18, 2024
    Quote
    700k shells are Soviet caliber (probably 122mm, like the 300k 122mm shells, and 152m. Possibly other calibers also), at an average of 1k per shell.
    Edward Snow (@NedSnow2019) March 18, 2024

    He's exactly right. Why should there be any limit to the aid for Ukraine? Anything that happens in RUSSIA"S doing. Russia can't expect to be able to invade their neighbors and just tell everyone to stay out, or else.


    To give in to Russian nuclear blackmail and threats would be a huge mistake.


    If Europe did send troops into Ukraine, what the fuck is Russia going to do about it? They can't do jack shit. They won't start nuking everyone over Ukraine.


    The time to confront Russia is EXACTLY right now and over Ukraine.


    Quote from rabidrabit

    https://redstate.com/streiff/2…ins-war-week-107-n2171419

    French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated Thursday, March 14, his position that sending Western troops into Ukraine should not be ruled out – though he said today's situation doesn't require that. But calling the conflict in Ukraine "existential for our Europe and for France," Macron said anybody advocating "limits" on aid to Ukraine "chooses defeat."


    In an interview on French national television, Macron said a Russian victory in Ukraine "would reduce Europe's credibility to zero," and would mean that "we have no security."


    Speaking on TF1 and France 2, Macron was asked about the prospect of sending Western troops to Ukraine, which he publicly raised last month in comments that prompted pushback from other European leaders. "We're not in that situation today," he said, but added that "all these options are possible."


    Macron said that responsibility for prompting such a move would lie with Moscow – "It wouldn't be us – and said France would not lead an offensive into Ukraine. But he also said, "Today, to have peace in Ukraine, we must not be weak."


    He said that the continent's security was "at stake" in the conflict which he said "is existential for our Europe and for France." He added that "if the situation should deteriorate, we would be ready to make sure that Russia never wins that war."


    He said there had been "too many limits in our vocabulary" since the Russian invasion in February 2022. "Two years ago we said we would never send tanks. We did. Two years ago, we said we would never send medium-range missiles. We did," he said. "Those who say 'let's not support Ukraine' do not make the choice of peace, they make the choice of defeat," he added.

    'Treated like dogs': Russia recruiting thousands of Nepali men to fight in war on Ukraine

    Ganesh, 35, told Sky News that Nepali soldiers were treated as cannon fodder and that "once we were sent to Ukraine, we didn't have enough food and were beaten by the Russians".

    Around 2,000 Nepali men have been recruited by Russia to fight in its war against Ukraine, Sky News understands.

    Driven by poverty, many of the Nepali mercenaries are now desperate to return.

    Ganesh, 35, is one of the few recruits lucky enough to have made it home. He spent four and a half months fighting in Donetsk and he says Nepalis were "treated like dogs".

    "It was very frightening. It wasn't man to man, bullet to bullet. We were attacked by drones and it was terrifying," he said.

    We spoke to him in Kathmandu as he prayed at a temple, relieved but traumatised by his experience on the frontline.

    He says soldiers were taken to Avangard training centre, a military academy outside of Moscow, for two weeks.

    Ganesh served 10 years in the Indian army, but many others alongside him were young and inexperienced. He describes some as never having held a gun before.

    'Thrown into conflict with little support'

    After training, he says there was a sharp shift in the way foreign mercenaries were treated - they were suddenly thrown into conflict with very little support.

    "For the first two weeks of training, life was good," he says. "But once we were sent to Ukraine, we didn't have enough food and were beaten by the Russians. It was really bad."

    Nepali men, Ganesh claims, were cannon fodder in their war. "The original Russian soldiers were behind us. On the frontline it was mercenaries."

    He describes a clear pecking order with Russian criminals, Nepalis and Indians ahead of Kremlin troops.

    Ganesh saw three Nepali men killed on the battlefield but has heard of many, many more casualties.

    Soldiers told Russia was 'full of opportunities'

    He says he was struggling to find work and when he went to an agent to see if he could work in Luxembourg, the agent suggested he should go to Russia instead because it was "full of opportunities".

    Ganesh then had to take out a loan and pay him one million Nepali Rupees (nearly £6,000) to travel from Moscow via Dubai on a tourist visa.

    The average monthly Nepali salary is the equivalent of less than £150. But he was told by the agent he could earn about £1,675 a month if he joined the Kremlin's campaign.

    Once in Russia he then had to pay another agent nearly £800 just to be taken to the training camp.

    The figure of 2,000 men recruited into the Russian army is based on the testimony of returning soldiers, as well as Russian immigration data.

    It has also been cross-referenced with estimates provided by campaigners supporting the families of those still serving or dead.

    Many Nepalis have described being given student or tourist visas to get to Russia and the Nepali government is so concerned, that it has taken action.

    Nepal has asked for soldiers to be repatriated

    It was already illegal for Nepalis to fight for foreign militaries, including Russia's.

    But in January this year, the government banned its citizens from travelling to Russia or Ukraine for work and has asked Moscow to repatriate all Nepalis who were recruited.

    Superintendent Nawaraj Adhikari told Sky News the police are cracking down on agents - the men who help sort the documents required to cross into Russia and illegally fight its war.

    "Police have already arrested 22 suspects," he said. "It's a big, serious problem."

    The relatives of more than 150 Nepali mercenaries have filed requests appealing to the consular department after losing contact with their relatives.

    And yet, men desperate to escape poverty, continue to make the perilous journey to the battlefield.

    'It's not like it looks on TikTok'

    Many say they were wooed by watching TikTok videos of happy-looking recruits training in Russia. But Ganesh is urging anyone considering it not to sign up

    "I would tell them not to go," he says. "On TikTok you see them with fancy uniforms, with fancy guns. But it's nothing like that."

    Getting out of the war is proving treacherous. Ganesh said he tried to flee with six other Nepali men, but was caught and badly beaten by Russian soldiers.

    He says he tried a second time to use an agent. "There was a Nepali guy, I contacted him and he said to send me 200,000 rubles (£1,700).

    "I did that, then ran away from the barracks and looked around for the taxi he was meant to send but it wasn't there. Then he went out of contact."

    Ganesh said many of his fellow Nepalis had tried the same. "I have seen 10 to 15 Nepalis who were wandering around, out of their minds, cheated by agents."

    He eventually fled again on foot, sleeping in old buildings, and spending a week in the forest before finally surrendering to the Russian police in Donetsk.

    "I realised I could not cross the border and that I wouldn't survive if I stayed here," he says. "I gave myself up and went to the police. I was detained for one-and-a-half months and then they sent me back to Nepal."

    Kritu Bhandari, a Kathmandu-based politician and social campaigner, has become the leader of a group of family members of Nepali mercenaries who are calling for their return from Russia.

    She says in recent weeks about 700 families have asked her for help in bringing their relatives home. She says she is also aware of 260 mercenaries who are out of contact with their loved ones.

    The Nepali government told Sky News 246 of its citizens are fighting for the Russian army currently and that at least 21 have been killed.

    But politicians and human rights campaigners in Nepal say those official estimates vastly underestimate the real numbers.

    According to the Nepali Foreign Ministry, Russian authorities have reportedly agreed to provide compensation to the victims' families and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has assured his Nepali counterpart that he will address their concerns.

    But Moscow has said nothing yet about stopping the recruitment of Nepalis or repatriating the dead.

    Sky News asked the Russian Ministry of Defence and the embassy in Nepal to comment on Ganesh's allegations, and to provide the number of Nepali mercenaries in its armed forces. Neither have responded so far.

    What is clear is that Nepal is caught in a conflict it has no stake in, driven by many who were trying to escape poverty.

    They now look increasingly exposed with no guarantees of a safe return.

    https://news.sky.com/story/tre…n-war-on-ukraine-13095184

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    Quote
    Ukrainian drone strikes have significantly impacted Russia's oil-refining capacity, with about 600,000 barrels per day offline according to Gunvor Group Ltd.'s CEO Torbjörn Törnqvist. The strikes, hitting plants deep inside Russia's borders over the weekend, have led to diesel… pic.twitter.com/mlNnE6I8BX
    — NOELREPORTS \uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA \uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@NOELreports) March 19, 2024

    You are completely, pathetically and insanely nuts if you believe it.