Russia begins invasion of Ukraine - what now?

    Quote from Toad

    IMO this administration is pushing him to use nukes.


    Our people are FIs.


    Leave it to Democrats to start world wars; they've had the most success at that.

    I find it hard to believe that FJB is pushing Putin to use nukes. Gross negligence as a contributing factor to their eventual use is possible.

    I think Putin put himself in the situation. I do think that he needs to be stopped in Ukraine and it doesn't matter what he does at this point, if we didn't resist him and didn't stop him it would only get worse later. We should deal with it whatever the consequences are that come from this but we need to defend Ukraine.


    If Putin uses nukes it's all on him. He caused all of this.

    I know you are all in on this war. I'm not.


    The simple fact is that Putin is fighting advanced NATO weaponry that just happens to be operated by Ukrainians. They get targeting information from US intelligence assets. They know when and where to shoot because US assets tell them when and where to shoot.


    This IS a proxy war. The continual escalation in the quality, quantity and capability of NATO weaponry being shoveled into the hands of Ukranian stand-in soldiers is just one simple proof. Remove NATO/US intelligence and logistics support and this war is over quickly. Putin wins.


    So who and what is Putin really fighting? He knows, Biden knows. Anyone being honest with themselves knows.


    What no one knows is how far Putin will allow himself to be pushed before he ups the ante.

    What I think is that it's the right thing to do to defend Ukraine and to stop Russia from trying to take over Ukraine.


    Russia is the one who started all of this. They started a major war in Europe. It's all on them. Did they expect no one to resist it? They don't get to have a free reign.


    Anyway, this is how world wars start. Neither side is really able to back down at this point. If we walk away from this and let Ukraine fail, what does that do to world order? To China and Russia.


    I think that the whole world. Or the western world needs to unite and defeat Russia in Ukraine. It has to happen now. If we fail and let Russia take over Ukraine, what do you think the world's going to look like after that?


    Yeah we're supplying Ukraine with arms and intelligence. So what? We're not dying over there. They're fighting for themselves. They want to fight for themselves. And I think we should help them.

    Quote from Gina

    I think Putin put himself in the situation. I do think that he needs to be stopped in Ukraine

    Yeah, he needs to be stopped. Without a single US soldier being in Ukraine. Without giving away so much of our war material that our troops fall even further below current readiness levels. Without the US military intelligence assets being used as a de facto part of the Ukrainian armed forces. Without the US giving Ukraine such advanced weaponry that Putin responds with tactical nukes.


    We are walking a razors edge. I always wondered how this nation slipped into our brother against brother civil war. Could they not see the danger as they argued vehemently? The same with the Euros and Hitler....how did they not see it coming? Maybe like we are ignoring signs right now? Just maybe?

    Well, I think it's fair to say that if a seemingly non-belligerent third party is supplying one side with real time intelligence that results in the accurate targeting of important military assets or personnel that it could easily be considered an act of war by the third party.


    As an example, what if the Russians had used their intelligence assets to give accurate targeting information to Iraq during our short war there. Suppose this intelligence resulted in the targeting of our generals, our logistic stockpiles, communication nodes or artillery concentrations. Would we have just ignored that?


    In short, when a country supplies that info, they are acting as co-belligerents. I'm certain Putin sees it that way. Walking the razors edge.

    Rode Hard, Put Away Wet

    Edited once, last by Toad ().

    Don't you think that the more we get involved in Ukraine the more Xi sees a window of opportunity to do whatever he wants in the South China Sea and Taiwan? Do you think he'll pass on the opportunity?


    If he has a brain, he'll let Russia exhaust our war material supplies and then act. We are at a HUGE disadvantage in the Pacific to begin with because of the long logistics trail. Exacerbate that with empty war material warehouses. Xi has to be smiling.

    What I think is that Russia didn't expect basically all of Europe and the United States to be united. And that's what we need to be. That needs to be an example for China as well. That the world is united against that kind of thing.


    I think it would have been much weaker not to do anything. I think allowing them to just take Crimea was a major mistake that led to this.


    I don't want to live in a world where we allow Russia to start taking back countries and use them as their own personal buffer zones.

    The way Putin was trying to blackmail everybody? When he said anybody who interferes we consider that an act war and that we're going to use nukes? We couldn't let him just say that and get away with that. That would have shown total weakness.


    I think this is a tough road but we have to do it. There's no other choice at this point anyway.


    I think having the world united is an example for China.


    Have Russia ostracized by the world community is a good example as well.

    Quote from Gina

    See in my opinion, rather than Putin having us being afraid of what he might do it should be the other way around. Because he's the aggressor. He should be worried as fuck about what we might do. It's a two-way street. He doesn't get to dictate the terms.

    Most people in the US see the world from a limited perspective. So far in this thread pretty much all the concerns, though legitimate, are consistent with Russian IO and the relationship isn't coincidental. We talk about it from our self centered position guided by their talking points which are designed to divide us.


    In what way are we undermining ourselves vs the Chinese with the stuff we supplied to UA? Once you dig into it, the answer isn't nearly as big as the pro Russia IO talking points. That is balanced out by what deterrent effect does our determination to help UA defend itself have on them? It's clear that the Chinese had a very arrogant understanding before Putins fuck up and the reality of how the US and world responded was a major deterrent.


    Why does Russian state media mention NATO much more than the US? Why do they threaten other western countries more than they threaten retaliation vs the US? Russian media portrays themselves as being at odds with the Western world and not just the US like US centered people here think. There is reason to having so many countries supporting UA and to having those lines crossed by different ones at different times. We here see this from a US perspective as if all those other countries don't exist. The rest of the world sees it differently.

    This country no longer has the ability to fight what was called a two front war when I was in. In reality, I think we were losing that ability while I was in. Carter ensured we no longer had that ability.


    I recently read a good article by a retired Admiral that pointed out the failings of our Just In Time naval logistics systems. The pencil-pushing pointy-headed geeks that instituted JIT fail to realize that peacetime logistics and wartime logistics are completely different. This problem of JIT really applies to all the services. Add to that the extremely long lead times to replace modern weapons and ammunition. Mix in the fact that the estimated usage rate of ammo, like howitzer shells, has been shown by the Ukrainians to be woefully underestimated.


    Will our government and military wake up and do something about JIT and increasing war stocks? No. Because that costs money that is better spent on Equity Housing in the US.


    In short, our military is in sad shape if we have to fight a major war. That, RR, is not a pro-Russia talking point. That's just the truth.

    Now as to NATO, if you do a little reading, you'll find our Euro allies are in worse shape than we are were it to come to fighting a war.


    "The British Army ran out of ammunition after just eight days during a recent online war simulation, the former commander of the US Army in Europe has warned.


    Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, a retired US officer, told MPs that the 'entire British Army's inventory' was exhausted and 'every bit of important ammunition was expended' before the 10-day exercise finished." British Army 'ran out of ammo in eight days in online war simulation' | Daily Mail Online


    The rest of NATO is likely in worse shape. I suspect the Germans sent only a handful of Leopards because that's all they could get operational. Their Air Force is a joke.


    So yes, let the US continue to act as a co-belligerent (and we ARE acting as a co-belligerent when we supply actionable intelligence in real time to target Russian assets and personnel). Then pretend that we are NOT engaging in this war against the Russians. Keep pushing Putin and we will all find out if he's bluffing with nukes................or not. That's just another fact. You don't have to be a Russian bot to see it but you do have to open your eyes.

    You are conflating two issues. General readiness and the other being the effects of supporting UA on general readiness. Also, my point about pro Russian's using these talking points muddies an honest discussion because the reality gets distorted by disinformation activities. If you want to understand the effects on our readiness, you have to dive in past the headlines to have a rational assessment of what is going, it's actual costs and the net effects on our general readiness.


    So, I agree our general readiness to fight two major conflicts at the same time isn't as good as it was pre collapse of the USSR. I'm trying to get away from the talking points and understand the reality of the conversation.


    "Will our government and military wake up and do something about JIT and increasing war stocks? No. Because that costs money that is better spent on Equity Housing in the US."


    Not only the US but countries globally are substantially ramping up arms production. People had become complacent and the thought of a major conventional war faded until last year. With China heading towards Imperialism due to internal issues, I'm glad to see this wake up call.

    Quote from Toad

    So yes, let the US continue to act as a co-belligerent (and we ARE acting as a co-belligerent when we supply actionable intelligence in real time to target Russian assets and personnel). Then pretend that we are NOT engaging in this war against the Russians. Keep pushing Putin and we will all find out if he's bluffing with nukes................or not. That's just another fact. You don't have to be a Russian bot to see it but you do have to open your eyes.

    Again, what is the upside and down side of not supporting? Upside and downside of more minimal supporting? Upside and downside of the current state of supporting? Upside and downside of ramping up support x amount?


    I have seen a number of well informed discussions and have my opinion on what makes the most sense risk/reward for the US. I don't think you have really sat down and thought it through but I could be wrong.

    I vaguely remember from early in my career that they were moving away from the requirement to fight a two front war. At the time the USSR had fallen and China wasn't seen as a serious threat. I think for awhile it was assumed that we would only be involved in skirmishes in 3rd world countries.

    The Russians are shits. Always have been, always will be. Where was all this united resolve to stand against the Russians when Putin took Ukraine in 2014? Why did nothing happen then?


    The Ukrainians are no saints either. There's a reason Hunter Biden was on the take over there. There's a reason Joe the Idiot threatened to withhold aid unless they fired that prosecutor.


    I hope the Ukrainians DO kick the Russians out of the eastern part of their country. I hope they realize they are not going to get Crimea back. I hope we are smart enough to quit participating as a co-belligerent. I hope we continue to supply the Ukes with basic war materials and not our most advanced stuff. I hope we do not draw down our stockpiles to the point that we are like the Brits with 10 days of ammo on hand.


    But then...........I'm an uneducated Russian bot.

    Quote from rabidrabit

    I don't think you have really sat down and thought it through but I could be wrong.

    Well OF COURSE I haven't!


    Only YOU have done that and only YOU have access to the entirety of actual facts concerning the war in Ukraine. Only YOU know the truth.


    I salute you.

    Quote from Toad

    Well OF COURSE I haven't!


    Only YOU have done that and only YOU have access to the entirety of actual facts concerning the war in Ukraine. Only YOU know the truth.


    I salute you.

    I'm basing that by what you have said. I just don't see the kind of thought process in your writing that would indicate a deeper understanding of the issue. Sorry, I could be wrong, but everything you wrote seems very US centric and superficial. I wasn't attacking you, I was trying to get you to go further down the path.


    "Only YOU have done that and only YOU have access to the entirety of actual facts concerning the war in Ukraine. Only YOU know the truth."


    This is childish and absurd. I obviously don't think that way and you know it. Reacting like this just reinforces the perception of your behavior above. I really don't see any value in such exchanges. If you really have thought things through and want to participate further then let's do so. If you don't care to participate in the conversation beyond superficially then don't get pissed when others expect more.