Ukraine War thread.

  • Those stupid fuckers are going on their own free will though. Even though they're deceived of the conditions, they should have some common sense.

  • Headline from Der Spiegel: https://www.spiegel.de/ausland…fb-4507-b80d-0ffc69cb0ac8


    Massive fighting on Russian soil following attacks by pro-Ukrainian paramilitaries

    Pro-Ukrainian forces, including Russian militias, have been attacking the border region around Belgorod for days. The city itself was the target of several attacks. The fighting around the border village of Kosinka is said to be particularly fierce.

    March 20, 2024, 4:20 p.m

    For days, pro-Ukrainian forces, including fighters from Russia , have been attacking the border region with Ukraine near the city of Belgorod. Russia reacts with violent counterattacks. "Anyone who believes that this is an operation to destroy another diversified group is very much mistaken," writes an anonymous Russian war blogger on the Telegram online service. "It is a full-fledged military battle with the use of artillery, aircraft and heavy equipment, no different from the fighting in Zaporizhia," he added. "Unfortunately, almost nothing remains of Kosinka," wrote the blogger, referring to a Russian border village.

    The neighboring town of Graivoron has also been subjected to "massive shelling" since early in the morning, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on Telegram. Two people were killed and two others were injured.

    Russia has now also admitted the actions, but wants to have its own territory back under control: Ukrainian fighters tried to take border villages in the Belgorod and Kursk regions, with the most active actions taking place near the settlement of Kosinka. All enemy attacks were repelled and the enemy was pushed back from Russian territory," said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin also promised strikes against the attackers: Russia would ensure the security of its border regions, he said. The country already has plans for how it will respond.

    Moscow blames neighboring Ukraine , against which Putin has been waging a brutal war of aggression for more than two years, for the attacks in the border region. In fact, it often appears that paramilitary organizations are behind the attacks. Although they fight on the side of the Ukrainians and are embedded in the structures of the Ukrainian army, they consist primarily of Russian nationalists.

    The associations, which have names like the "Russian Volunteer Corps," say they have fought battles with the Russian army in the border area in recent days and have now announced further attacks on social media. Pro-Ukrainian paramilitaries have claimed responsibility for the attacks, but not Kiev's regular armed forces.

    At a press conference after last weekend's sham elections in Russia, Putin said of Russians fighting on the side of Ukraine: "They stood against their homeland with weapons in their hands. We do not have the death penalty, but we will always treat these people - both now and in the future - as those who are in a war zone, we will consider them armed.

    Regional authorities are tightening security measures

    Meanwhile, the situation in the regional capital Belgorod is also getting worse after another attack. Local Russian authorities report that one person was killed. According to Governor Gladkow, residential buildings, a school and two kindergartens were also damaged. However, no students or teachers were present as schools are temporarily closed following the recent attacks. Gladkow announced an early start to the holidays for the regional capital and the districts on the border with Ukraine. Some of the lessons will still be conducted online. In seven districts, checkpoints with security forces have begun to be set up to regulate access to towns.

    In Moscow, Federation Council President Valentina Matviyenko announced an "appropriate response" to the attacks and retaliation. The attacks by the Ukrainian armed forces were specifically directed against civilian objects and cities, said the confidant of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin - without providing any evidence. She accused the USA , Great Britain and NATO of coordinating the actions of the Ukrainian army. She did not provide any evidence for this either.

    The regional authorities in Belgorod announced that they would distribute food due to the increasingly poor supply situation in the area, the Russian state news agency Tass reported. The day before, Governor Gladkow had also announced that a total of 9,000 children would be brought to safety. Last year there were already evacuations after the region was shelled.

    Armed personnel from the Interior Ministry, the National Guard, the Border Guard and the Ministry of Defense are supposed to regulate access to the towns at the checkpoints. "We will ensure safe access to the respective residential address at times when there is no shelling," said Gladkow. At the same time, residents should continue to be convinced to leave their houses and apartments for their own safety.

    The border region of Belgorod is considered an important staging area for the Russian army from which to wage its war against Ukraine. Ukraine has been resisting the Russian invasion for more than two years. There are also counterattacks on Russian territory, where military targets are the focus. However, the damage on the Russian side is comparatively small in relation to the devastating destruction and the high number of killed and injured civilians on the Ukrainian side.

    According to military experts, the attacks in the border region have primarily psychological goals: in view of the sham elections in Russia, they are intended to give the impression that the war could be brought to Russia. At the same time, the reactions from the Kremlin show that the issue is preoccupying the country's political leadership. They also tie up resources that Russia would need on the main front in the invasion war against Kiev.

  • An unsuccessful attempt by Russian infantry to storm the building with RDK in Kozinka, Bilhorod.

    In the beginning they drop a hand grenade and kill their comrade.


    pic.twitter.com/etfbVKrpdI



    — \uD835\uDD17\uD835\uDD25\uD835\uDD22 \uD835\uDD07\uD835\uDD22\uD835\uDD1E\uD835\uDD21 \uD835\uDD07\uD835\uDD26\uD835\uDD30\uD835\uDD31\uD835\uDD2F\uD835\uDD26\uD835\uDD20\uD835\uDD31 \uD83C\uDDEC\uD83C\uDDEA\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDF2\uD83C\uDDEC\uD83C\uDDF7 (@TheDeadDistrict) March 20, 2024

  • Might Russia run out of big guns?

    Its armed forces may be out-shelling the Ukrainians—but they are wearing out their artillery


    Russian guns are firing around five times as many shells as Ukraine’s are. Fighting has intensified in recent weeks. On February 17th the invaders seized Avdiivka, a town on the eastern front. They have since taken several nearby villages. In the south Ukrainian soldiers are defending the village of Robotyne with just 20 to 30 shells a day. Russia’s firepower gives it a clear advantage—but does it have enough guns to keep it up?

    In February Russia had just under 5,000 artillery pieces in the field, according to the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London. It produces about 50 artillery-gun barrels a year, according to Pavel Luzin of the Center for European Policy Analysis, a think-tank. Ramping up production would be difficult: gun barrels are made with specialist machinery using high-grade steel. At the outbreak of war only two Russian factories were equipped to make them. Few countries export gun barrels and fewer still would sell to Russia: North Korea is a possible source, having already supplied shells. But satellite images suggest that Russia is replacing a large share of the big guns it loses from a stock that is stored in the open air.

    At the start of the conflict Russia had around 19,000 artillery pieces in unsheltered yards. But some of those guns have been rusting for decades, making them unusable. Many have been raided for parts over the past two years: gun barrels have frequently been used to replace those worn out by firing thousands of rounds. A study by one open-source intelligence (osint) analyst on X, who goes by Ben on the site, suggests on that basis that just 2,000 self-propelled guns and 2,400 towed artillery pieces could still be used. Those figures are uncertain: it is hard to estimate how many of Russia’s oldest guns, d-1 and m-30 howitzers, which date back to the second world war, can still be used—or how much ammunition Russia has for them. But the dwindling supply of artillery, and of gun barrels in particular, is a clear problem.

    It is hard to estimate the rate at which Ukraine is destroying Russian artillery: big guns are usually stationed far from the front lines, making them difficult to count. Ukraine’s armed forces claim to have destroyed more than 10,000, but the number which can be visually confirmed is far lower. Oryx, an osint analysis team in the Netherlands, whose estimates are often reasonably consistent with those of state agencies, has images of around 1,000. Based on the rate at which equipment is being withdrawn from the open-air stock, the osint analyst on X suggests that the Ukrainians have destroyed perhaps 5,500 big guns. Russia is expected to run out of barrels in 2025, says one informed analyst, at which point it will need to rely on rocket artillery, which requires far greater supplies of explosive material.

    In the past year Ukraine has become much better at destroying Russian artillery (though the opposite is also true). Its detection systems have improved: counter-battery radar supplied by its allies tracks Russian shells back to their source. A plentiful supply of small kamikaze drones, launched up to 20km from their target, can destroy Russian guns. The invaders could protect their artillery by moving it further back from the front lines, or withdrawing some pieces altogether. But that would hamper their ability to pummel the Ukrainians. For the defenders, that would provide welcome relief.


    Might Russia run out of big guns?
    Its armed forces may be out-shelling the Ukrainians—but they are wearing out their artillery
    www.economist.com

  • More on Russians invading Russia


    Mrs. Girkin

    With pain in our hearts, almost every day we read about enemy shelling of the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk regions. I catch myself with a bitter feeling of recognition - the same thing happened with our Donetsk, when a peaceful city overnight lost its calm, familiar life and found itself at the very forefront of a military conflict.

    With all my heart I sympathize with the Belgorod residents, the residents of Russian cities under attack, and I hope for the best. Could this scenario have been avoided? The answer, probably, can only be given by people who understand military strategy.

    Igor had envisioned such a development for a long time. From his point of view, with the method of conducting the Northeast Defense that was chosen, the threat to Belgorod and other border cities was inevitable. According to Igor, the enemy took a completely expected strategic step.

    This is what Strelkov wrote in June 2023, and this analysis remains relevant today:

    “Due to the massive shelling and fighting in the Belgorod region, the Russian government found itself in the position of “a worm caught on a fork.” The enemy “put on its ears” a densely populated and fairly prosperous (by Russian standards) region, and the Kremlin cannot do anything to prevent the Belgorod region has not turned into the same constant battlefield that Donbass has been for 9 years.

    After all, if you scrape together reserves (and you will need a lot of them), put together a strike force and try to create a “security zone” on the territory of the Kharkov region (30-40 kilometers deep (at least) - then, firstly, it is not a fact that it will work out (surrender the territories it’s always easier than taking it), secondly, the entire assembled group in the end (no matter what the outcome is - whether successful or not) will “get stuck” in this sector of the front and using it as a reserve will not be possible at all.

    And the enemy - that’s all he needs - he has enough “second-rate” units and formations to support the newly formed front line without much strain, without touching the strike reserve corps, ready to rush towards the Sea of Azov.

    That is, launching an offensive on the border of the Belgorod region is “a game according to the enemy’s rules” with a corresponding final result. The Russian General Staff and the Kremlin probably understand this.

    But simply “tolerating” continuous enemy attacks on the Belgorod region (and then on the Kursk and Bryansk regions) is also not a great solution. The population is shocked and grumbling. The “indigenous” regions of the Russian Federation are already being destroyed, the authority of the authorities is rapidly falling... Something needs to be done. And here - again, an “ambush” - those nationwide events that could allow the command of the RF Armed Forces to simultaneously successfully defend in the south and actively operate on the central front have not been carried out and not even prepared. And even if you start them right now, they will give the first positive effect in two or three months, or even later. And the negative costs (and throughout the entire country, which was promised many times that “there will be no new mobilizations”) will come immediately.

    Hence the stupor... “Wherever you throw it, it’s all a wedge.” And all that remains is to “squirm between the teeth of the fork” in the hope of something unknown (“maybe it will blow through” and everything will somehow form on its own). The Kremlin is now simply pretending that “nothing special is happening” - just minor terrorist attacks... and somewhere far away. Well, okay, they’ll be patient - “Donbass has been patient and told you to.”


    https://t.me/i_strelkov_2023/1010

    https://t.me/strelkovii/6754


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    Quote
    Kremlin-affiliated actors in the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia are invoking narratives that mirror previous Russian claims about Ukraine in the years leading up to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, likely as part of the Kremlin’s wider hybrid… https://t.co/4aUrWZlcLu pic.twitter.com/bLu7YwjhDg
    Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 21, 2024



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    2/ Yevgenia Gutsul, the governor of Gagauzia, stated in an interview with Russian outlet Izvestia published on March 20 that she would like Gagauzia to receive “zashchita” (a word that means both “defense” and “protection”) from Russia so that Gagauzian residents can have the…
    Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 21, 2024



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    Quote
    3/ Gutsul’s claims that the Moldovan government is not adhering to the law on Gagauzia’s special status parallel the Kremlin’s previous accusations that Ukraine did not adhere to the Minsk Agreements’ stipulations on the “special status” for the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR)… pic.twitter.com/xMjgXqkOO2
    Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 21, 2024


    Quote
    4/ Gutsul’s use of “zashchita” and the fact that both Transnistrian and Gagauzian authorities have invoked narratives that mirror those surrounding the Minsk Agreements in a major Russian publication suggest that the Kremlin is orchestrating a wider effort between pro-Russian…
    Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 21, 2024
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  • Another very Russian story


    On March 19, a number of Russian media reported that the Russian Trawler “Captain Lobanov” sank in the Baltic Sea. Preliminarily, due to «an explosion» on board. Now information has appeared in the Russian media that the ship was sunk as a result of a Russian Navy missile… pic.twitter.com/MxacRh0Zdr

    — Special Kherson Cat \uD83D\uDC08\uD83C\uDDFA\uD83C\uDDE6 (@bayraktar_1love) March 21, 2024

  • Quote
    According to Briefly, the Russian Ministry of Defense eliminated the mandatory release from military service when reaching retirement age. The age was already raised from 60 to 65 for enlisted and 70 for officers in 2023.

    The only way out now is disability, death, or bribe.

    1/3
    Malcontent News (@MalcontentmentT) March 20, 2024
    Quote
    This change is less about keeping the enlisted ranks filled and more about a quietly growing crisis—the lack of experienced field grade officers.

    According to the @KilledInUkraine project, Russia is losing about 5 officers a day, visually/data confirmed since Feb 24, 2022.

    2/3 pic.twitter.com/yDn0KHgyuE
    Malcontent News (@MalcontentmentT) March 20, 2024